Exiled but not from everywhere: how Russia managed to avoid diplomatic isolation
15 July 2024 15:59
Despite the war in Ukraine that Russia started in 2014, it still plays a prominent role in the international arena and maintains not only diplomatic but also economic ties with a number of countries. Recently, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Moscow, and before that, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban visited the Kremlin during his “peace tour”.
Moreover, at the end of June, even the controversial American rapper Kanye West visited the aggressor country. Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin also occasionally leaves Russia: in May, he flew to China to hold talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and in July, he visited Kazakhstan. Komersant ukrainskyi
Russia’s international alliances
The Russian Federation is one of the five members of the UN Security Council (a permanent body of the United Nations responsible for the maintenance of international peace and security – ed.) Not only does it still remain on the Security Council, but since 1 July it has also held the presidency. on 9 July, after the attack on the Okhmatdyt children’s hospital, Russia tried to block Ukraine’s participation in the UN Security Council meeting, according to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.
This is not the first time Russia has vetoed and blocked resolutions on Ukraine. In 2022, it vetoed a Security Council resolution condemning the annexation of Ukrainian territories. Despite the fact that Ukraine has repeatedly called for Russia’s expulsion from the UN Security Council, it still remains one of the five permanent members.
“Russia is a member of the United Nations Security Council and has repeatedly presided over it during its aggression against Ukraine. Nothing can be done about it, because Moscow always has a veto and can impose it on any Ukrainian initiatives. It cannot be expelled from the UN in any way, because Russia is one of the countries that founded the organisation (as the successor to the USSR – ed.).”
– stanislav Zhelikhovsky, PhD in Political Science, international expert, told Komersant ukrainskyi.
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry nevertheless believes that Russia took the seat of a permanent member of the Security Council bypassing the procedures set out in the UN Charter. Allegedly, this happened on the basis of a letter from the President of the RSFSR Boris Yeltsin to the UN Secretary-General.
The current UN Charter (Article 23), which lists the permanent members of the Security Council, does not contain the words “Russian Federation,” the ministry explains.
“The Russian Federation has never undergone a legitimate procedure for membership and occupies the seat of the USSR in the UN Security Council illegally. From a legal and political point of view, there can be only one conclusion: Russia is the usurper of the Soviet Union’s seat in the Security Council,”
– said the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry.
In addition to the UN Security Council, Russia is still a member of the G20.
“Russia has joined the G20, where it also has a lot of opportunities to expand its influence and ties with certain states. Moreover, it was even a member of the group of the most advanced countries in the world – the Group of Eight – and only the invasion of Ukraine was the reason why the Russian Federation was expelled from this format,”
– said Stanislav Zhelikhovsky.
Indeed, during the war in Ukraine, it was expelled from the Council of Europe and the G8.
In addition, in 2023, the International Criminal Court in The Hague issued arrest warrants for Russian President Vladimir Putin and Children’s Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova for the illegal deportation of people and children from Ukraine to Russia.
This means that if they leave the territory of Russia for countries that are parties to the ICC and have ratified the Rome Statute, they must be arrested and brought to court. So far, however, there have been no such cases. For example, Putin recently visited Kazakhstan to attend a meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). Given that Kazakhstan has not ratified the Rome Statute, the leader of the aggressor country was not arrested.
“We can say that Putin is in diplomatic isolation from the West, in particular, he has an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court, but the countries of the so-called global south are trying to maintain a neutral position, continue to cooperate with Russia, including in trade, and benefit from it. Accordingly, Putin still continues to shake hands with them,”
– explained Maksym Yali, PhD in Political Science, Professor at the National Aviation University.
In addition to the SCO, Russia still leads or is a member of organisations such as the Eurasian Economic Union, the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Collective Security Treaty Organisation and the BRICS.
“Long before the war against Ukraine, Russia had been building various alliances and unions with various countries and international organisations, not only with Western countries, but also with those we can refer to as the global south. For example, Vladimir Putin initiated the creation of the BRICS, which includes key states from different regions, including India, China, and Brazil. This format is now expanding. In early 2024, Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt and the UAE joined the BRICS,”
– zhelikhovsky added.
Why countries continue to cooperate with Russia
Russia still has close relations with countries such as Serbia, Turkey and Hungary. To the latter, it offers its energy carriers at much lower prices than to other European countries, said Stanislav Zhelikhovsky.
“In Hungary, it is building the Paks nuclear power plant using Rosatom technologies, where it is also the main contractor. Rosatom is also building a nuclear power plant in Turkey and other projects, including gas pipelines,”
– the expert noted.
In his opinion, Russia is still interesting for India because of low energy prices.
“Russia sells energy to India at much lower prices. And this is now beneficial for Prime Minister Modi. Also, for a long period of time, Russia has been selling military contracts to India. This also tied this country to Russia, but now, however, these contracts are decreasing, because a lot of weapons are used in the war against Ukraine,” he said,
– the expert stressed and added that through the presence of military mercenaries, Russia has also tied Latin America and Africa to itself.
“All this makes it impossible to isolate Russia completely. Even if the Western powers tighten sanctions, Russia can compensate for them at the expense of other states,”
– said Zhelikhovsky.
The expert stressed that even EU countries cannot fully impose sanctions against Russia, for example, in the nuclear industry.
“Because a country like Hungary is constantly vetoing, precisely because of the organisation of the Paks-2 project on its territory by Rosatom. And it is interested in maintaining relations with Russia, so it is very difficult to seek any compromises with Viktor Orban,”
– zelichowski concluded.
Each of the experts who expressed their opinions on the reasons for Russia’s “under-isolation” agreed on one thing: more states put their economic interests first.
“Every state has its own interests and they are trying to achieve them. Unfortunately, often at the expense of our interests. But this applies not only to our adversaries, but also to our partners,”
– added Maksym Yali.
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