US withdrawal from negotiations or return to support for Ukraine: scenarios for Trump’s meeting with Putin
8 August 2025 13:44
ANALYSIS
US President Donald Trump is considering a meeting with Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin as early as next week. However, the American leader may stop participating in the peace process in Ukraine if Kyiv and European allies abandon his plans to resolve the conflict with Russia. This was written by The Wall Street Journal.
According to the publication, according to European and Ukrainian officials, the Moscow leader may offer to consolidate Russian control over part of the occupied Ukrainian territories in exchange for the withdrawal of troops from other regions. Trump, who is eager to reach an agreement, is likely to put pressure on Ukraine and its partners to accept such a scenario.
However, the approaches of the parties remain diametrically opposed, making the likelihood of a breakthrough extremely low, the publication writes. If Ukraine and European states refuse the American proposals, the US President may not only stop intelligence and military support for Kyiv, but also completely withdraw from the negotiation process.
Former Trump advisers, however, believe that despite doubts about Putin’s sincerity, the American leader will continue to try to make a “deal of his presidency,” even if political risks increase.
“He wants to be the one who brings deals. This is his brand,”
– emphasized ex-advisor Mark Short.
"Komersant Ukrainian" asked domestic political experts whether the US could really pull out of the negotiations and leave Ukraine and Europe to fend for themselves in the face of Russian aggression.
A truce that Putin does not need
“Now, at least, Trump wants to meet with Putin in order to have a substantive conversation and see how ready he is to end the war. This meeting will be decisive,”
– explains international expert Volodymyr Volya in an exclusive commentary
According to him, the American president is not acting on his own: he is preparing for this meeting in consultation with Ukraine and the EU states.
The expert analyzes the potential settlement options that are currently being discussed:
“If we are talking about the truce option, then yes, this would essentially mean that it is a temporary ceasefire. And the weak point in this story is that Putin does not need this. Because for Putin it would be a sign of defeat.”
At the same time, Volya does not rule out the tactical use of the ceasefire by the Russian leader in order to accuse Ukraine of violating it under any pretext and launch a new offensive. This is despite the fact that Ukrainian troops are likely to be deprived of the current assistance.
The danger of sanctions concessions
The expert draws special attention to the risks of lifting sanctions:
“They are still seriously considering lifting sanctions in exchange for a ceasefire. If they are indeed lifted, but the territory is not liberated, it will mean the West’s retreat.”
Volya emphasizes the contradictory nature of the current proposals. According to him, there are a lot of different versions being voiced, which have a lot of shortcomings and contradict the positions of the main geopolitical players, especially Europe. Some of them are unacceptable to Russia, while others are unacceptable to Ukraine and Europe.
At the same time, the expert notes that Trump himself leaves the issue of sanctions open:
“When he was asked about sanctions, he said that everything would depend on whether Putin agrees to end the war. That is, sanctions are secondary for now, and the tariffs remain in place.”
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The United States’ return to supporting Ukraine
According to Volodymyr Volia, the meeting could be a turning point in the US president’s strategy:
“Trump is now entering a transitional phase: from a peacekeeping strategy to a belligerent one.”
The expert predicts that Trump’s meeting with Putin may have an unexpected outcome for the Russian leader, which is not at all what The Wall Street Journal suggests. That is, the United States may withdraw from negotiations with Russia, but it will not abandon Ukraine, and on the contrary, it will return to the strategy of maximizing its support.
“This meeting should finally put an end to this story so that Trump can tell his voters that he clung to peace to the last. ‘I’ve tried this way, that way, and the other way, but Putin is a bastard’. That is, to shift the responsibility and justify why the United States is renewing its support for Ukraine.”
Volya notes that this tactic will allow Trump to change his approach: this meeting should justify why the United States is resuming support for Ukraine and no longer aims to find some kind of compromise peace between the aggressor and its victim.
Uncertainty to the last
Political scientist Oleksandra Reshmedilova emphasizes that the preparations for the meeting are taking place in a climate of uncertainty.
“At the moment, the preparations for the meeting between Putin and Trump are still taking place with certain elements of uncertainty. Even despite the confirmation of the possibility of such a meeting and some progress after Witkoff’s visit, there is still a possibility of a retreat maneuver,”
– she comments exclusively for
According to the expert, all the information injections around the possible meeting have a specific purpose:
“All these injections are aimed only at not making unambiguous conclusions, so that it does not look like the meeting has not yet taken place, but everything is already agreed and understood.”
Reshmedilova notes that this variation is due to the presence of both supporters and skeptics. Thus, the parties simply leave themselves room for maneuver and withdrawal, a kind of ejection from this negotiation process.
Doubtful prospects for the “presidential deal”
The political scientist is critical of Trump’s prospects for reaching meaningful agreements, as any possible outcome will not look like a meaningful victory for him.
Reshmedilova is not too optimistic about the outcome of possible negotiations:
“In fact, all these information leaks suggest that neither side will get what they want.”
Are the chances of a breakthrough minimal?
Thus, the analysis of experts shows that despite active preparations for a possible meeting between Trump and Putin, the chances of a real breakthrough in resolving the war remain minimal. The contradictory positions of the parties, the tactical risks of a truce for Ukraine, and the political ambitions of the American president create a complex combination of factors.
Experts agree, to some extent, that the meeting may turn out to be less an attempt to achieve a just peace than a way for Trump to demonstrate to his voters his willingness to engage in dialogue before moving to a tougher stance on Russia.
The danger is that any concessions in the form of lifting sanctions without liberating the occupied territories will mean a retreat by the West, and a temporary truce could become a trap for Ukraine, depriving it of international support.
The final answer to the question of the future of American policy toward Ukraine can only come after the leaders of the two countries sit down to negotiate-if it happens at all.
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