Apples will become more expensive: price forecast for the whole of 2026
8 January 11:21
After two consecutive seasons of relatively high prices, apples remain one of the most expensive staple fruits on the Ukrainian market. Despite a sufficient harvest in 2025, there has been no significant reduction in prices, and there are currently no prerequisites for a sharp drop in prices in 2026. At the same time, the market remains sensitive to exports, seasonality, and the quality of products in storage . Alexander Khorev, an expert on the agricultural market and coordinator of the EastFruit Weekly Ukraine project, spoke to "Komersant Ukrainian" in an exclusive commentary about how apple prices may change during 2026 .
The harvest was good, but prices did not fall
According to the expert, it is difficult to make a forecast for the whole of 2026, but the situation in the second half of the current season can already be assessed now — before the 2025 apple harvest is fully sold.
“It is quite difficult to make a forecast for the whole year. We can talk about the second half of the current season — before the 2025 apple harvest is fully sold. They are currently in storage, and producers are gradually supplying them to retail chains and wholesale markets,” notes Alexander Khorev.
The 2025 harvest was good. During the season, there were no serious weather disasters — prolonged rains, prolonged heat, or massive hailstorms that could have significantly damaged vegetation.
“There were no prolonged rains lasting three weeks, no abnormal heat like the year before last, and no constant hailstorms. In other words, the harvest was quite good,” explains the expert.
Why apples remain expensive
Despite sufficient production volumes, apple prices have not returned to the levels of three or four years ago. There are several reasons for this.
“Prices for apples have been quite high for the last two seasons, especially last year. And even with a good harvest this season, they have not fallen to previous levels because the market has already become accustomed to the high prices that have been established,” says Khorev.
Another factor was the lack of competition from other fruits and the high price of bananas. According to the expert, when imported fruits become more expensive, apples automatically receive price support.
Exports as a key driver of prices
Another important factor is exports. Due to a good harvest, the share of high-quality apples has increased, and significant volumes of this product have been sent abroad.
“Ukraine is quite active in exporting apples, and the volumes are even increasing in some seasons. The geography of supplies is expanding, and the quality of our apples allows us to compete in global markets. Accordingly, a significant part of high-quality products is exported, where prices are higher,” the expert explains.
Foreign exchange earnings from exports also support domestic prices, as producers focus on external demand.
What will happen to prices in 2026
According to Khoriev, there is currently no reason for apple prices to fall. Instead, there are factors that could contribute to their gradual increase.
“During storage, high-quality apples are gradually sold, and there are fewer of them. In addition, the products lose their commercial characteristics, and some of the apples can no longer be sold as high-quality. This is also an additional reason for the overall decrease in apples in storage,” he notes.
The most likely price increase traditionally occurs in the spring.
“In April-May, apple prices may rise and will continue to rise until the first berries and fruits of the new 2026 harvest appear. After that, the tension in the market usually decreases, and prices may fall slightly,” the expert predicts.
In 2026, the apple market will remain relatively stable, without sharp price fluctuations. No significant price reductions are expected, and a moderate increase in prices is possible in the spring. Further dynamics will depend on export rates, the state of stocks in storage facilities, and the start of the new harvest.
