How blackouts will affect prices in Ukraine: should we expect food prices to rise
26 November 2025 16:08
ANALYSIS 
Ukraine continues to experience regular blackouts due to Russian shelling of its energy infrastructure, which leads to unstable electricity supply across the country. Blackouts affect not only residential consumers, but also industrial enterprises, forcing manufacturers to look for alternative sources of power or to stop part of their production.
This has a direct impact on food and other goods, as electricity is a key resource for modern technological processes – from poultry rearing and incubation to vegetable storage and feed production.
Energy-intensive industries will be hit hardest
Economist Andriy Novak in a commentary
“The consequences of these targeted shelling of the Ukrainian energy sector by Russia are, of course, most painfully felt by energy-intensive industries,” Novak explains.
“We are talking about entire key industries:
- heavy industry;
- large metallurgical plants
- chemical enterprises;
- plants of the military-industrial complex;
- agricultural enterprises with wide production lines.
“These are, first of all, large enterprises, large plants, or factories, or combines of the metallurgical industry, chemical industry, military-industrial complex, agricultural enterprises with large production capacities, large conveyor lines,” Novak explained.
Why large factories cannot adapt quickly
Blackouts for such enterprises are not just an inconvenience, but a critical risk. Unlike small businesses, large production facilities cannot switch to generators or other backup power sources without losing productivity.
It is impossible to run a metallurgical furnace or a chemical reactor from a generator, as it requires tens of megawatts of power. And any interruption in the production cycle can lead to
- equipment shutdown
- product damage
- expensive repairs,
- and millions in losses.
Even where businesses have redundant power systems, they can only support operations partially and for a limited time.
“It is possible to compensate for blackouts with alternative power supply, primarily with generators, but only for a certain period of time, and secondly, only with relatively small production capacities,” Novak notes.
Therefore, it is the large enterprises that operate on continuous lines and consume large amounts of energy that are at the greatest risk:
“It is large enterprises, large plants, factories that require large amounts of electricity that suffer the most,” the economist concludes.
Chicken and eggs may rise in price by 15-20%
Sergiy Karpenko, executive director of the Ukrainian Poultry Association, said in an exclusive commentary that poultry and egg production is very sensitive to a stable electricity supply.
“The use of alternative sources of electricity has a negative impact on the cost of eggs and poultry meat. Constant power outages pose a threat not only to production but also to the continued existence of the poultry industry and the country’s food security,” Karpenko said.
According to him, the power outage is fraught with livestock losses and increased production costs.
“Incubation and then rearing of young laying hens requires strict adherence to the technological indicators of poultry keeping for four months, which cannot be achieved without ensuring a stable and uninterrupted supply of electricity. The use of backup power sources not only significantly increases the cost of production, but also increases the risk of losing poultry as a result of possible failures in their operation,” the expert explained.
Blackouts are especially critical for chicken producers, where electricity is needed at all stages:
- incubation
- rearing
- slaughter and primary processing;
- cooling and storage;
- transportation.
“Poultry producers have even more stringent requirements for electricity supply, which is needed for incubation, throughout the entire technological cycle of rearing, slaughtering, processing, storage and delivery of finished products to consumers,” Karpenko said.
The production of feed for poultry is not yet fully adapted to operate in the event of a power outage. The equipment of feed mills cannot operate stably on diesel generators, which jeopardizes the safety of livestock.
“The powerful equipment of feed mills requires a certain voltage to start and operate, to ensure all related processes of feed production according to the rations, which diesel generators are simply not capable of providing. The inability to produce feed threatens the inevitable loss of poultry population,” the expert explained.
According to the expert, the use of alternative energy sources can lead to a 15-20% increase in the price of poultry products
“Electricity accounts for 7 to 12% of the cost of poultry production, and up to 30% for some types of products. However, it should be understood that the production of poultry products consists of different stages, and therefore at each stage we will have an increase in the cost of components and, accordingly, the cost of the final product of the industry will grow exponentially,” Karpenko emphasized.
He added that the main negative consequence for the industry will be a rise in the cost of feed, which accounts for the largest share of the cost of poultry production and uses electricity in its production. There will also be a chain reaction to increase the cost of other components that form the cost of poultry and egg production.
Poultry farmers are already cutting back on planting plans, which means less production and potentially higher prices for chicken and eggs in the coming months.
“Due to the critical situation with the electricity supply, poultry producers, primarily poultry producers, are reviewing and adjusting their planting plans downward, which will further lead to a reduction in production, exports and tax revenues to budgets of all levels. In the long run, the decline in production may lead to an even greater increase in prices for poultry products,” summarized the Executive Director of the Ukrainian Poultry Association.
Fruit and Vegetable Industry: Storage and Transportation at Risk
Oleksandr Khorev, project coordinator of EastFruit Weekly Ukraine, in a comment
According to the expert, the impact of energy attacks on the economy is comprehensive:
“It seems to me that this has a negative impact on all areas of the economy and life, in any case, something cannot be avoided and something cannot. There is destruction, infrastructure is crumbling, and problems with energy supply are getting worse. All this really affects all processes, but does not stop them.”
He emphasizes that despite the difficulties, production in most regions does not stop – work continues wherever the security situation and the state of the infrastructure allow it.
“In all the territories of Ukraine where life is still going on, production is, in principle, continuing. Only in critical cases, when the territories are occupied, we can neither work nor live there,” the expert explains.
According to Khorev, serious disruptions occur when the destruction reaches critical proportions.
“Only when the destruction of the infrastructure reaches 80-100%, work may be suspended. But everything is gradually restored and continues,” he adds.
Impact on growing cycles and production volumes
Despite the difficulties with the power supply, the timeframe for growing vegetables and fruits remains roughly the same as in previous seasons. However, other factors can significantly affect the market:
“In principle, the terms of cultivation remain the same as during the growing season. But there may be a decrease in production volumes or the inability to store the volumes that were planned,” says Khorev.
These risks are most relevant for the companies that:
- suffered direct destruction,
- do not have alternative sources of electricity,
- lost the ability to maintain storage conditions.
In such cases, agricultural producers are forced to radically change their business plans:
“They will either try to store their products in another city or adjust their production and trading plans,” the expert emphasizes.
