How can the war in Ukraine be stopped? Ukraine presented its peace strategy in Geneva
10 March 19:41
The Geneva Center for Security Policy (GCSP) has presented a comprehensive 31-page proposal aimed at establishing a sustainable ceasefire in Ukraine. This is reported by "Komersant Ukrainian" with reference to the text of the document.
This initiative aims to move from theoretical discussions to practical solutions aimed at resolving the armed conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
Key components of the Ceasefire Plan
Establishment of a buffer zone
The plan proposes to create a buffer zone at least 10 kilometers wide along the 1,200-kilometer front line separating Ukrainian and Russian troops. This zone would serve to prevent direct contact and reduce the risk of accidental clashes.
Agreeing on a ceasefire line
This line needs to be fixed, as it will be the basis from which the parties will have to retreat.
Opening humanitarian corridors
These should be opened across the contact line to ensure freedom of movement and access for recovery and reconstruction.
International monitoring and verification
It is recommended to deploy approximately 5,000 civilians and police to patrol the buffer zone, supplemented by up to 10,000 foreign troops. This force would operate under a United Nations (UN) mandate, providing impartial monitoring of the ceasefire and overseeing the withdrawal of heavy weapons.
Formation of a joint commission
The authors of the document propose to establish a Joint Military Coordination Commission (JMC), which would include representatives of the Russian and Ukrainian armed forces, as well as international observers. This body would address critical issues such as the exchange of prisoners, the removal of landmines, and the creation of humanitarian corridors to facilitate the safe movement of civilians.
Humanitarian demining
A key aspect of the plan is the conduct of humanitarian demining operations, especially within the buffer zone, to ensure the safety of returning displaced persons and the effective functioning of international observers.
Security guarantees
The proposal emphasizes the need for mutually agreed security guarantees to minimize the likelihood of a resumption of hostilities, which will help create a stable environment conducive to further peace negotiations.
Challenges to implementation
The complexity of the conflict zone. The considerable length of the conflict zone, which is approximately five times the size of the demilitarized zone between North and South Korea, poses significant logistical challenges. In addition, the diverse and sophisticated weapons used by both sides make it difficult to monitor and enforce the ceasefire.
Political will and compliance. The main obstacle to the success of the plan is the position of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Experts express skepticism about his willingness to agree to and abide by the terms of the ceasefire, citing past instances in which Russian officials denied their intentions to invade Ukraine shortly before the outbreak of hostilities.
International Reaction to the Ceasefire Plan in Ukraine
Russia, despite the fact that its representatives worked on the text of the document, criticized the Franco-British peace initiative, considering it an attempt to buy time for Kyiv and prevent the collapse of its army. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that the plan was intended to provide a temporary respite, not a permanent end to the conflict.
In contrast, European leaders, including British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron, have proposed a one-month truce and are seeking to present a peace agreement to US President Donald Trump. They also expressed their willingness to deploy peacekeeping troops to Ukraine, which Russia strongly opposes, especially the deployment of NATO troops.
GCSP ceasefire plan for Ukraine: what experts say
Experts have provided different assessments of the plan, reflecting on its feasibility, potential challenges, and implications for regional stability.
Samuel Charap, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation , recognizes the ambitiousness of the GCSP proposal, but emphasizes the unprecedented challenges it faces. He notes that the length and complexity of the front lines, combined with the sophisticated weapons used by both sides, make monitoring and enforcement particularly difficult. Charap suggests that innovative approaches, including the use of drones, sensors and other technologies, could increase the transparency and effectiveness of monitoring ceasefire violations.
Masha Hedberg, an associate professor of political science at Colgate University, offers a broader perspective, analyzing various peace proposals, including the GCSP. She notes that the deep-rooted mistrust and conflicts of interest between Russia and Ukraine are significant obstacles to any settlement. Hedberg emphasizes that while the GCSP proposal is constructive, its success depends on addressing each country’s security concerns and finding a balance between fairness and pragmatism. She advocates for a phased approach, believing that it may offer the most appropriate way to move forward in the face of entrenched positions.
Experts at the European Policy Center express concern about the timing and potential consequences of a ceasefire based on the GCSP proposal. They argue that a ceasefire at this point could harm both Ukrainian and European security, as well as global stability. The GCSP warns that instead of resolving the situation, such a ceasefire could increase the risk of future confrontations with even more catastrophic consequences. They emphasize the importance of ensuring that any ceasefire agreement includes robust security guarantees and does not simply serve as a temporary pause in the fighting.
In summary, the experts point to significant challenges associated with the implementation of this peace plan, including logistical difficulties, deep-rooted mistrust between the conflicting parties, and potential unforeseen events that could undermine regional security.
Читайте нас у Telegram: головні новини коротко
