The quality of Russian missiles is falling, but Russia is producing drones by the thousands: what will be the new stage of the war?
11 September 2025 17:22
Russian massive attacks are becoming more powerful and blurring the borders with Europe. This may be a sign that the war is entering a new phase, when the threat is common to the entire European space. Russia’s most powerful attack on Ukraine (more than 800 air targets per night), the strike on the Cabinet of Ministers and 19 shaheds in the skies of Poland all indicate a new level of war.
Experts warn that Russia is capable of producing up to 200 drones per day and is preparing for massive attacks, while Ukraine is relying on the development of a “drone line” and scaling up its electronic warfare units to stay ahead of the enemy.
At the same time, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, says that Russia is copying Ukrainian technologies and trying to catch up in the field of drones, starting a real technological race. Should Ukraine expect a hard winter, or is Europe becoming the direct frontline of this war?
The strikes, which included more than 800 air targets, including the first targeting of the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers and an attack on NATO territory (19 Iranian Shahed drones over Poland), demonstrate the expansion of the war’s scope. Says aviation expert Konstantin Krivolap in a commentary to "Komersant Ukrainian".
“I don’t know if Putin went to Xi Jinping for consent, but I have no doubt that he received support. I even think that the strike on Poland could have been done to divert attention from the attacks on pensioners in Donetsk region the day before. It was a calculated strike,” said Kryvolap.
At the same time, Kryvolap emphasized that the quality of Russian missiles is gradually decreasing as access to Western components is limited. However, this does not apply to the mass production of drones.
According to him, in June, Russia produced 2, 700 drones, in October it plans to increase to 4,000 per month, and by the end of the year it will reach 6,000 units. Production capacities are being increased at several enterprises – in Kupol, Izhevsk, and Tula.
“Russians will be able to produce 200 drones per day. And I don’t see us preparing for this yet,” Kryvolap summarized.
Russia is copying Ukrainian interceptor drones: Syrsky says there is a “technological race”
At the same time, the enemy is also preparing for powerful attacks. Ukraine and Russia are in a direct technological race in the field of unmanned systems. This was stated by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi, commenting on new intelligence data.
According to him, Ukrainian drones have proven their effectiveness both at the tactical level and in the enemy’s deep rear. It is about the destruction of oil refineries, ammunition depots, air defense systems, as well as the destruction of equipment and manpower directly at the front.
“The enemy continues to adapt and, traditionally, copy our successful technologies, particularly in the field of interceptor drones. We are dealing with a direct technological race, in which the advantage will be given to those who not only modernize but also get ahead. Our task is to continuously improve existing solutions and create new technologies and tactics for using unmanned systems. In August, Ukrainian drones hit more than 60,000 targets,” emphasized Syrskyi.
The Commander-in-Chief emphasized that the “drone line” is one of the priorities of the army’s development: new units are being actively created, crews are being trained, and tactics of use are being improved. Particular attention is paid to intensifying strikes in the deep rear of the Russian Federation: the military-industrial complex, oil refining and weapons production facilities are being destroyed.
At the same time, Syrsky acknowledged that Russia is building up its drone capabilities, so Ukraine is expanding and strengthening its electronic warfare units. In August, a record number of enemy drones were suppressed with their help.
“Our efforts to develop and scale up the Unmanned Systems Forces are yielding tangible results. And the enemy feels it well. The fight continues,” summarized Oleksandr Syrskyi.
Ukraine and Russia are not only fighting on the ground, but also in a competition of technologies. Whoever is the first to not only modernize but also create new solutions in the field of unmanned systems will have an advantage. The stakes are rising, and the frontline is increasingly moving beyond Ukraine.
