What will the winter of 2024-2025 be like in Ukraine: a forecast from meteorologist Vira Balabukh
17 October 2024 06:23
Climate change continues to affect seasonal weather conditions in Ukraine. Vira Balabukh, Head of the Department of Applied Meteorology and Climatology at the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute, told Kommersant Ukrainian 
what to expect this winter. Read more about the extent to which climate change affects Ukraine, what the Arctic invasions are and what impact they will have on the temperature in Ukraine this winter in the "Komersant Ukrainian" article
What will be the temperature in Ukraine in winter 2024-2025?
According to Vira Balabukh, the general warming trend observed in recent decades will continue in the winter of 2024-2025. The meteorologist noted that Ukraine’s climate will be affected by the La Niña phenomenon, a negative phase of oscillations that contributes to the formation of anticyclones in the Atlantic region. This can lead to frequent transfer of warm air from the subtropics to Ukraine.
According to forecasts, the average winter temperature will be 1-2°C above normal. For the central part of Ukraine, including Kyiv, the average temperature may range from -5°C to 5°C.
What temperatures will the Arctic invasions bring to Ukraine?
Despite the expected warming, Ukrainians are likely to face short-term Arctic intrusions this year. Arctic intrusions are a meteorological phenomenon that involves a sharp drop in temperature for 2-3 days.
Balabukh emphasised that even in abnormally warm weather, when the temperature in Kyiv can reach 5°C, a 10-degree drop in temperature due to Arctic intrusions can bring frosts down to -5°C. If the base temperature is already lower, at -15°C, for example, then such intrusions can create extremely cold conditions, the meteorologist noted.
In general, the winter of 2024-2025 is forecast to be warmer than average, but the likelihood of short periods with significant cold snaps will remain high.
Author: Olya Yushko
