What will be the dollar exchange rate in 2026-2027: the forecast is announced
18 November 12:03
In the next two years, Ukraine’s foreign exchange market will remain under control, and under the baseline scenario, the dollar will not exceed UAH 48. This was stated by Dilyara Mustafayeva, head of the analytical department at Financial Pulse, referring to forecasts by the International Monetary Fund, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine and the National Bank of Ukraine, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
She noted that despite the military risks, the underlying macroeconomic parameters demonstrate a tendency towards gradual market normalization.
The currency deficit will be reduced from 2027
In the draft State Budget for 2026, the Government has set an average annual exchange rate of 45.7 UAH/USD and 49.4 UAH/EUR. The IMF expects the exchange rate to be 45.4 UAH/USD in 2026 and 47.5 UAH/USD in 2027.
Although the NBU does not publish an official exchange rate forecast, the regulator states in its October inflation report that in 2026 the private sector’s foreign currency deficit will remain significant, but will begin to decline in 2027.
“This will be due to the growth of export revenues – primarily from the agricultural sector, metallurgy, IT services, and certain areas of machine building. At the same time, imports will decline naturally, including energy supplies,” explains Dilyara Mustafayeva.
According to the forecasts, the excess of imports over exports will decrease from UAH 55.8 billion at the end of 2025 to UAH 42.8 billion in 2027, and the import-export coverage will increase from 50% to 61%.
The private sector will receive more foreign currency
The supply of foreign currency in the private sector will increase, in particular due to
- increased harvests and stable demand for Ukrainian agricultural products;
- recovery of the global economy, which will support metallurgists;
- expansion of arms production under international projects;
- growth in IT exports.
“Starting in 2027, we expect a significant revival of investment and debt capital inflows. Confidence will return to the foreign exchange market, which will reduce the demand for cash currency,” the expert notes.
Support from partners will remain critical
In 2026, Ukraine expects to receive more than $45 billion in international assistance, and in 2027 – $39 billion. These amounts allow avoiding emission financing of the budget.
“If we continue with European integration reforms and cooperation with the IMF, the NBU will be able to continue to compensate for the structural currency deficit. This is the key to maintaining market stability,” emphasizes Dilyara Mustafayeva.
According to the NBU, international reserves will grow to USD 54 billion by the end of this year (5.5 months of imports) and will exceed 6 months of imports in 2027.
Risks remain significant
The main threats to the forecast are military: the intensity of shelling, the destruction of infrastructure, a decline in production activity, irregularity of external financing, and deepening migration trends.
“If the basic assumptions hold true, the dollar will not exceed UAH 48 in 2026-2027. The market will remain manageable. But everything will depend on the course of the war and the stability of external support,” summarizes Dilyara Mustafayeva.
For reference:
TheNGO “Center for Economic Research and http://finpuls.com/прогнозування “Financial Pulse” was established on March 2, 2015 to unite the efforts of participants and experts of the financial market of Ukraine for its development and improvement. Among the goals of the Center:
- Improving the quality of the regulatory framework governing the financial market, eliminating regulatory problems that hinder its full development
- Increasing the transparency of financial institutions
- Development of new market instruments and mechanisms,
- Facilitating the implementation of economic reforms and entrepreneurship development, etc.
