The euro is almost 50, demand for gold and Eurobonds is growing: what investors should pay attention to
2 July 15:52
The cash exchange rate of the euro in Ukraine continues to rise and has already exceeded 44 hryvnia. As of July 2, banks were selling the currency at UAH 49.75 per €1. Meanwhile, the official NBU exchange rate reached UAH 49.41.
This is mainly due to changes in the global currency market. Due to political and economic problems in the United States, the dollar is weakening in international markets, and investors are increasingly investing in European assets. As a result, the euro is strengthening and, accordingly, becoming more expensive in Ukraine.
Economists told [Kommersant] what to expect next and whether the euro could rise to 50 hryvnia.
Economist Oleksandr Okhrimenko explains that the euro exchange rate in Ukraine is formed through the cross-rate, not directly. And it is global processes that influence it the most. According to Okhrimenko, US policy plays a significant role, particularly trade disputes between Washington and the EU.
The US is now losing credibility in the international market. Trump’s policies, new tariffs, and conflicts with the European Union are all contributing to the dollar’s devaluation. Consequently, the euro is rising in value. And if the trend continues, the euro-dollar exchange rate could rise to 1.20, which would mean that the euro would easily cross 50 hryvnias in Ukraine. This is math,” he says.
For his part, analyst Oleksandr Parashchiy believes that the euro’s appreciation in Ukraine is the result of the flow of investments from the United States to Europe, which has been going on for several months.
“The euro’s growth in Ukraine is not a unique phenomenon. It is a reflection of a global trend: investors are withdrawing from dollar assets and investing in European ones. Since spring, we have seen a gradual flow of capital from the US stock markets to European ones. This is due to the fact that US economic policy is currently unpredictable. And investors don’t like risks, they are looking for stability, and they find it in the EU,” he comments.
According to the analyst, this market behavior was provoked by both the actions of the Trump administration and the general geopolitical tension.
“If there is uncertainty about the growth of the US economy, trade relations with China, duties and sanctions, some investors simply flee the US market. As a result, the dollar is weakening and the euro is strengthening. We are also seeing an increase in gold and demand for European bonds. This is a signal of a change in priorities,” the expert adds.
Regarding the possibility of reaching 50 hryvnia per euro, Paraschiy believes this scenario is realistic, but not guaranteed.
If the dollar rises to 44 hryvnia by the end of the year and the euro-dollar exchange rate is in the range of 1.18-1.20, the euro can easily cross the 50-hryvnia mark. But if the US policy stabilizes, and agreements are reached with the EU and China, the dollar may strengthen, and then the euro will no longer be so expensive,” he summarized.
Thus, there is a possibility of the exchange rate rising to the level of “euros for 50 hryvnia “, but it is not related to the weakness of the hryvnia, but is determined primarily by global factors – the decline in the dollar on world markets, the economic and political situation in the United States, as well as changes in investment flows. These factors are currently contributing to the strengthening of the euro, but further developments depend on how international politics and the economy develop.
Author – Yaroslava Lubiana
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