European business expects a stronger blow from US tariffs in 2026
10 November 09:44
European businesses expect a much greater impact from U.S. tariffs and trade tensions in 2026 than in 2025, when companies were able to partially mitigate the effects by making early deliveries. This is stated in a new study by the BusinessEurope organization, published on Monday, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports with reference to Reuters.
Impact on the European economy
According to the survey, trade disputes with Washington could reduce the GDP of the eurozone, the EU and a wider range of European countries by 0.03 percentage points in 2025.
However, in 2026, the negative effect may increase to 0.5-0.6 percentage points, with the euro area suffering the greatest impact.
According to experts, the greatest pressure is expected to be on export-oriented industries, such as mechanical engineering, automotive and high-tech sectors.
Survey and the ECB’s position
BusinessEurope’s survey is based on responses from 36 national business associations from EU countries, as well as the UK, Switzerland, Turkey, and Ukraine.
The organization notes that its findings are consistent with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) estimates. The bank predicts that the impact of tariffs and uncertainty on eurozone growth in 2025-2027 will be about 0.7 percentage points.
At the same time, the ECB notes that this figure was lower than previously expected, as the level of political uncertainty has decreased significantly since the conclusion of the EU-US trade agreement in late July.
Businesses about concerns and risks
Despite this, businesses are still concerned about the lack of predictability and the risk of delayed impact of the new US duties.
BusinessEurope notes that uncertainty about future US decisions poses medium-term challenges to European economic growth.
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