European imports keep prices down: what’s happening on the cheese market
6 August 20:25
Despite the rising cost of raw milk on the domestic market, cheese prices in Ukraine remain stable. The main reason for this is competition with imported products, which prevents domestic producers from revising prices, Olena Zhupanis, deputy director general of the Association of Milk Producers, told Kommersant.
In recent months, prices for raw milk in Ukraine have been gradually rising. According to the Association of Milk Producers, the average purchase price as of August 2025 exceeds UAH 20 per liter including VAT.
The increase is due to several factors:
- seasonal reduction in milk yields
- rising feed and energy costs;
- low production margins on farms.
For many segments of the dairy industry, this means an automatic rise in product prices. For example, butter prices are indeed sensitive to changes in milk prices. This is especially true against the backdrop of active exports to the European Union.
However, the situation with cheese has its own specifics. Olena Zhupanis emphasizes that Ukrainian processors cannot set prices freely, as they are constrained by competition with imports.
“If we look at the selling price of cheese in Ukraine, it has remained almost unchanged this year. Ukrainian processors cannot sell cheese at a higher price than imports, because then they will not be competitive. And our European colleagues are quite active in importing cheese to Ukraine,” says Zupanis.
“According to market estimates, the share of imported cheese on the shelves of Ukrainian supermarkets is already approaching 50%, and in some chains it even exceeds this figure.
And they (importers – ed.) are conquering our cheese market. Even sometimes by dumping prices. Therefore, there is no reason to expect an increase in the price of Ukrainian cheese because the purchase price of milk has increased, because it is held back by imports,” summarized the Deputy Director General of the Association of Milk Producers.
“Imported cheese mostly comes from Poland, the Netherlands, Germany, and Lithuania. Thanks to larger-scale production, modern technologies, and government support for the agricultural sector, European producers are able to offer competitive prices, even taking into account logistics.
Cheese price in 2025: stability against all odds
In the first half of 2025, the average price of semi-hard cheese (including Gouda, Eden, and Dutch) in retail chains remained between UAH 290 and 330 per kilogram. Prices did not change significantly, despite the rise in milk prices and higher production costs.
Ukrainian companies, such as Zvenyhora and Komo, continue to produce high quality products, but are forced to focus on the price of imports. This restrains the potential for domestic price growth even in the face of rising costs.
Read also: Why Ukrainian butter is rising in price and how to avoid buying counterfeit: expert explains
Import pressure as a key deterrent
Imports of cheese to Ukraine increased in 2024-2025, especially after the partial resumption of trade with the EU and weakening domestic demand. According to customs statistics, in the first half of 2025, cheese imports increased by 12% compared to the same period in 2024. Poland, Lithuania, and the Netherlands remain the largest suppliers.
Moreover, some European producers are deliberately entering the Ukrainian market with aggressive pricing policies to consolidate their positions. This puts additional pressure on Ukrainian processors, forcing them to maintain prices even in unprofitable conditions.
What can we expect on the cheese market by the end of the year?
Experts in the dairy industry do not expect any significant changes in cheese prices by the end of 2025. The only factor that could affect the market is the potential introduction of new duties or restrictions on imported products. Such initiatives are being discussed at the level of specialized associations, but no specific decisions have been made yet.
If the cost of milk and energy stabilizes, Ukrainian producers may partially restore their margins. Otherwise, the risk of local products being pushed out of supermarket shelves increases.
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