ZNPP in the grip of uncertainty: why it is so difficult to predict the future of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant
9 December 13:50
ANALYSIS 
The issue of control and, accordingly, the future of Zaporizhzhia NPP is one of the biggest problems in the ongoing peace talks mediated by the United States. And there are enough reasons for this problematic nature. What exactly are they – "Komersant Ukrainian" found out.
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant may become the largest and most expensive nuclear power monument in the world. Such a forecast-assumption was recently made in the Ukrainian expert community. It is fueled by the realization that in order to restore the plant’s operation, many very complex issues need to be resolved. And not all of them are directly related to the progress of the peace talks. However, they are largely dependent on the outcome of the negotiations.
Lack of necessary information
A few days ago, on the night of December 6, Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was temporarily left without external power supply again. As the IAEA reported at the time, after a half-hour outage, the plant was connected to the line, but at a lower voltage than before. This was the 11th blackout since the start of the full-scale invasion. And, of course, not the longest one. Meanwhile, it once again confirmed the problems with power supply at the nuclear facility. But this is not the only thing that complicates the operation of the plant. Kostyantyn Batozkyi, director of the Azov Region Development Agency, continues.
“We do not understand the condition of the equipment at ZNPP. Because the occupiers manage the plant differently. They are trying to use Russian fuel there while the plant was already operating on American fuel. They use Russian equipment for repairs, while we used a lot of foreign equipment. Nobody knows what this plant is like technically now. And no one has 100% of this information,” the expert states.
The lack of sufficient information also affects the assessment of how difficult it will be to restore ZNPP’s operation if Ukraine regains management control over the plant. Although some complicating circumstances are known. Hryhorii Plachkov, head of the State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate in 2017-2021, explains.
“First, there is no Kakhovka reservoir. Accordingly, the question arises: where to get water from? The available water is not enough to generate electricity. There will be enough water to cool the reactor cores and to cool the spent fuel pools, but in my personal opinion, there will not be enough water for all six nuclear power units to generate electricity. Second, what to do with the cooling tower that was burned? And one more thing. For example, I don’t know what is happening there with the equipment important for safety, with the reactor hall, with the turbine. We have some information, but it is very incomplete. For example, there are questions about the flow from the first to the second circuit at some power units. There are other technical issues,” the expert said.
According to expert Kostyantyn Batozkyi, the key problem that has arisen is a landslide caused by the disappearance of the Kakhovka reservoir.
“The soil just started moving there according to the laws of nature. We do not know what the current movement of these soils is. We also don’t know how much water the Russians can find now to provide cooling. We know that they have built a new protective reservoir and are pumping water from wells, but this is all happening, in fact, under the plant. And again, no one understands how the soil will change now, because we cannot carry out any geodetic or other work there,” the expert states.
What is lacking, in contrast to reliable information, are rumors and some original ideas, not only Russian, but often quite far from reality.
Lack of acceptable ideas
In the spring of this year, there were reports that the Russians were allegedly planning to commission at least one power unit at Zaporizhzhia NPP. At that time, the SNRIU warned that any attempt to bring the ZNPP unit online would pose catastrophic risks comparable to the accidents at the Chornobyl and Fukushima NPPs, and reminded that the international community, including the IAEA, shared Ukraine’s position that the plant should continue to remain in a cold state.
Moreover, the current technical condition of Zaporizhzhia NPP does not allow to bring at least one of the power units online. This is emphasized by Hryhorii Plachkov, Head of the State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate in 2017-2021.
“Not only from a military and international political point of view, but also from a purely technical point of view, I do not see any possibility to bring at least one power unit to any capacity. Where is the electricity? Where is the water supply? What is happening with the fuel in the reactor core? We don’t know, we don’t know. And it’s also impossible, because while the nuclear power plant is powered by our unified energy system, it is not possible to supply electricity to another energy system,” the expert explains.
Konstantin Batozsky, director of the Azov Region Development Agency, reminds that “after Ukraine joins the European power grid, the nuclear power plant cannot produce electricity at the same frequency as in Russia.” In addition, in order to switch Zaporizhzhia NPP, it is necessary to go through a complete blackout, which is extremely dangerous from the point of view of nuclear and radiation safety.
“For the occupiers, the transition to the Russian conditional connection is complicated by two factors. The first is the efforts of our Security and Defense Forces, which do not allow the construction of energy infrastructure to primarily “feed” Zaporizhzhia station to meet the needs of Donbas. On the other hand, it is extremely difficult for them to do this technologically, because the equipment was adjusted to other physical parameters,” the expert explains.
Kostyantyn Batozkyi also calls the recently discussed ideas that some of the units will work for the needs of Ukraine and others for the needs of Russia absolute nonsense.
“This is absolute nonsense, first of all, from a technological point of view, because we have different current frequencies in the networks. We are synchronized with the European grid, not the Russian one. Therefore, this idea should be rejected immediately – it is fantastic. As well as the management of the plant by some Americans who have never seen a Soviet-designed VVER reactor in their lives and only understand in theory how it is controlled. This is total nonsense,” the expert said.
Hryhorii Plachkov also does not understand how Zaporizhzhia NPP can be restored and operate under the control of the same Americans.
“Nuclear energy is regulated and managed in accordance with the country’s domestic legislation. Therefore, there are norms, rules, and legislation of our state, according to which licenses are granted both for the operation of nuclear power units and licenses for personnel. Under what legislation will we manage and regulate this plant? It is absurd to operate it under Russian law. If it is in accordance with ours, then we need to return full management and regulatory control. There is another issue. There is American fuel in four power units. What to do with it? And who has the right to use it? Only Ukraine,” the expert emphasizes.
So far, these questions with and without answers are not sufficient arguments in negotiations on the future of ZNPP.
Lack of right decisions
Recently, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi voiced an original idea that, if a peace agreement is reached, Zaporizhzhia NPP will need a “special status” and a “special atmosphere of cooperation.”
“No operator can use a nuclear power plant when there is another country across the river that resists it and can take action against it,” said Rafael Grossi and emphasized that in any case, the IAEA would be an indispensable participant in this situation.
But whether it will be impartial is another question. Kostyantyn Batozkyi, director of the Azov Region Development Agency, has doubts about Rafael Grossi’s objectivity.
“The current head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, is openly playing on the Russian side, and the IAEA observation mission that is there is not much different from the OSCE observer mission that we had on the contact line from 2014 to 2022. He is fighting for the post of UN Secretary General and the support of Russia is important to him, so he is openly playing along with the other side, because he expects it to vote for him,” the expert notes.
Meanwhile, Zaporizhzhia NPP is occupied and the legal situation around it is unprecedented. Kostyantyn Batozkyi continues.
“From the point of view of international law, Ukraine is the legal owner of the plant. We granted the plant a license, and this license is suspended, but if something happens there, we are legally responsible. This is on the one hand. On the other hand, the station has already been legalized in the Russian legal field, i.e. it has received a Russian license. That is, we are now in a legal trap,” the expert states.
Actually, there is only one way to find legitimate and comprehensive answers to almost all of the above questions: returning Zaporizhzhia NPP to full control of Ukraine. And then one could ask another logical question: how quickly will it be possible to resume the activities of the Zaporizhzhia NPP. Hryhoriy Plachkov has an answer to this question. In his opinion, if the peace is stable, it will take at least five years.
Author: Sergiy Vasilevich
