A threat to Europe or a show of force: experts explain why Russia needs Oreshnik in Belarus
19 December 17:51
Russia has actually completed the process of relocating the Oreshnik missile system to the territory of Belarus. These weapons pose a direct threat to a number of European countries, including Poland and Germany.
This was stated by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a joint press conference with President of Poland Karol Navrotsky.
According to the head of state, Ukraine has accurate information about the future location of the complex on Belarusian territory and has already informed its international partners. Zelenskyy noted that Kyiv had warned its European and American allies in advance of Moscow’s plans to deploy Oreshnik in Belarus and provided calculations of the system’s strike zone.
He emphasized that this is a serious threat to many European countries. The President noted that this missile system cannot be intercepted by drones, and Russia has already used it against Ukraine. At the same time, the Ukrainian side understands what countermeasures can be effective.
Zelenskyy also said that Ukraine insisted on imposing sanctions against companies that supply Russia with components for the production of Oreshnik through third countries. Without such parts, he said, Russia would not be able to manufacture these systems.
The President expressed disappointment with the lack of real sanctions, noting that Russia is likely to continue producing these weapons, albeit in limited quantities. He emphasized that a logical question arises: if international partners, in particular the United States, are making significant efforts to end the war, are they ready to put the same pressure on the aggressor to prevent the deployment of missiles near the borders of Europe.
Lack of confirmation from intelligence
Military analyst, co-chair of the civil initiative “Right Cause” Dmytro Snegirev believes that the statements about the deployment of the Oreshnik complex in Belarus are premature. According to the expert, there is currently no objective data that would confirm the information voiced by the Belarusian leadership.
“It is at least premature to talk about Oreshnik being on combat duty in the territory of the Republic of Belarus. There is no evidence of objective control by Ukrainian intelligence and Western countries,” Snegirev said.
The analyst recalled the events of 2024-2025, when Lukashenko announced the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons.
“As of December 2025, there is no information on the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. The situation with Oreshnik is similar,” the expert emphasized.
“Oreshnik is an experimental missile
Snegiryov reminded that, according to the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, this missile is an experimental development.
“The Russian Federation currently has virtually no ability to scale up its production. Russia has from four to seven units of such munitions,” he said.
In his opinion, the information about the missile is an element of psychological pressure on Ukraine and the EU.
Economic crisis in Belarus
Political strategist Taras Zahorodniy believes that such statements are demonstrative. Belarus is in a difficult economic situation, forcing Lukashenko’s regime to look for resources.
“The reality is that Belarus’ economy is going downhill. That’s why Lukashenka started releasing dissidents – he needs money,” Zahorodniy said.
Lukashenka does not want to get involved in a war
Zahorodniy is convinced that the Belarusian leader is afraid of retaliation.
“He understands that if something flies from the territory of Belarus, the Mozyr Oil Refinery, Naftan and fertilizer production can quickly disappear from the map. If Ukraine is already firing at 1,500 kilometers, then a hundred kilometers is not a distance at all,” the expert emphasized.
Why Russia refrains from launching
The political strategist drew attention to the change in Moscow’s behavior after Donald Trump came to power in the United States.
“After Trump came to power, the Russians have never launched Oreshnik. All nuclear powers must be notified of the launch of intercontinental missiles. Now we don’t hear any direct threats against the United States, so these talks are just a demonstration of force,” Zagorodny concluded.
