The West is under the illusion of peace: Putin is building an empire, not writing a peace treaty. Historian names the only condition for the end of the war
10 October 2024 14:44
INTERVIEW
All discussions about peace talks with Putin are self-deception and disinformation. The Kremlin is not going to negotiate. Moreover, the dictator’s reluctance to see Ukraine join NATO is his main goal. In an exclusive interview with Komersant ukrainskyi
, Russian-American historian and researcher of modern Russian history Yuri Felshtinsky shared his research and explained what Putin really wants today.
Putin stopped considering the possibility of peace talks with Ukraine after the invasion of the Kursk region by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and is ready to fight until the Ukrainian state “collapses”. At least that’s what sources close to the Kremlin told the Explanatory Note. What does Putin really want?
on 24 February 2022, Putin launched a war aimed at destroying Ukraine as a state. At first, the dictator hoped that Ukraine would surrender in three days, then that he would be able to capture it in three months. Two and a half years have passed. During this time, it became clear: Ukraine is not surrendering, Putin cannot capture the country, but only occupy the territories very slowly due to the absolute destruction. This tactic has nothing to do with victory. Putin is in a hopeless situation.
Yes, Russia has rebuilt its economy to wage permanent war and now Putin can wage war “forever”. This means that the dictator can recruit a certain number of people into the army. And the Kremlin’s latest decision is very interesting, according to which they plan to recruit 180,000 people in six months. This is as many as Russia loses in six months in killed and wounded. That is, every six months, the Kremlin plans to recruit 180,000 new people to keep the war going as it is today. This does not allow for a strategic breakthrough.
A number of Western media outlets have written about a scenario of negotiations that would result in only a part of Ukraine’s territory being accepted into NATO. In Ukraine, this information was called a “throw-in”, while the Kremlin repeats the mantra of handing over four Ukrainian regions to Russia and lifting sanctions. What does the West want?
The West, of course, wants this war to end as soon as possible. Unfortunately, this is the only obvious goal of the West – to end this “headache” at any cost. Either through Ukraine’s surrender, or by stopping Russian aggression, or through a deal. However, Putin is not going to sign any agreement, because he is more comfortable with the format of war than the format of peace. It is no accident that Russia has been in a constant state of war with anyone since the first Chechen war. Putin, of course, has become almost a dictator over the 25 years of his rule, but he is still a state security officer. The West does not really understand who rules Russia and what is going on in this wild country. Since they do not have the ability to put pressure on Russia, they are more accustomed to putting pressure on the victim, Ukraine.
However, it is absolutely impossible to accept Russia’s terms, because Russia’s demands are that Ukraine cease to exist and commit suicide.
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Negotiations with Russia: is it possible? Under what conditions?
When Putin seized Crimea in 2014, absolutely everyone, including the Americans and Europe, told him: dear Vladimir Vladimirovich, tell us that this is the end of your foreign policy ambitions and we will find a way to solve this problem. Instead, Putin went to Red Square and said that he was starting to revise the geopolitical catastrophe that had occurred as a result of the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. That is, he is starting to redraw the map of Europe. He wants to regain the influence that the Soviet Union had over Eastern Europe. Putin’s plans go beyond Ukraine. And Europe, except for the Poles and Lithuanians, who perceive the threat more realistically, has forgotten about it today. I don’t see any opportunities for negotiations, although the West is dreaming about it. Russia has no plans to hold any negotiations. And it is not offering any.
The Financial Times has gathered the views of unnamed diplomats on possible scenarios for the end of the war and Ukraine’s accession to NATO. In particular, the West is studying a scenario for Ukraine based on the example of West Germany. Is this likely?
If Putin wanted to seize several regions of Ukraine and end the war, the real conditions for this would be a clause on Ukraine’s admission to NATO. Like, let’s keep some territories for us, and then do whatever we want. Ukraine’s accession to NATO means a peace treaty. Like in the case of West and East Germany, when a precedent was set: a country with a territorial dispute joined NATO. The Alliance, in turn, ensured West Germany’s peaceful existence. But Putin is demanding the opposite, that Ukraine both give up the occupied territories and not join NATO. When the Russian president agrees to the accession of a part of Ukraine to the Alliance, discussions on peace negotiations could begin at that moment. Such a peace treaty could be signed.
But Ukraine has clear conditions for ending the war – it is to return to the 1991 borders. How and when to return the territories occupied by Russia?
We know from the history of 1991 that such agreements would have remained in place until the first split, the split of Russia, as a result of which all Ukrainian territories would return to Ukraine, as East Germany returned to West Germany. This would be a respite for the Western world until the next split in Russia, which is inevitable. Putin believes that Russia’s problem is related to the fact that the collapse of the Soviet Union was a geopolitical catastrophe, but the difficulties faced today are related to the fact that the Soviet Union was not split enough. For example, the Chechen Republic, Dagestan, Tatarstan, and Ingushetia should have broken away from this territory.
Until the Russian Federation finally splits and the Russian people realise that they are not an imperial nation, but an ordinary people in a great country, there will be no normal life in Russia. Putin, without realising it, has driven Russia into a dead end from which it can only get out through another split. And it is inevitable against the backdrop of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
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Anastasia Fedor
