“Close the pocket”: military expert talks about Russia’s plan for Pokrovsk and the scenario of its encirclement
25 July 14:18
While the General Staff reports on the difficult but controlled situation at the front, Russian subversive reconnaissance groups are making their way to Pokrovsk. Moreover, some MPs say that the Russians have already entered the city. At the same time, military experts point out that this is only the penetration of small enemy groups, and the real threat is different: Russia is trying to close a “pocket” and cut off a key logistical link to the front. What is behind the statement “the enemy is in the city” – and where is the truth. Why silence and disinformation are more dangerous than the DRG,
Despite the increased pressure and numerical superiority, Russian troops are not able to make serious breakthroughs on the front line. This was stated by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, commenting on the current situation on the frontline.
“They are not advancing. It is very difficult for our guys there. And it is hard everywhere. And it is very difficult for the Russians, which is good for us. And the “Russians” do not want to fight. Except for their leadership,” Zelenskyy said.
The President emphasized that despite the constant threat, increased mobilization in Russia and the enemy’s attempts to put pressure on numbers, the situation at the front remains under control. The most tense situation is in the Pokrovske direction.
According to Zelenskyy, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, reported that Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups had tried to break into Pokrovsk five to seven times.
Did the Russians really enter Pokrovsk?
MP Mariana Bezuhla claimed that Russian forces had broken through to Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub on the routes to Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, and Kramatorsk. She wrote about this in her post, drawing attention to an alarming trend – public silence and lack of reaction to events that are, without exaggeration, strategic.
“The Russians did enter Pokrovsk, but it went unnoticed. I am shouting about Suschyna being unprepared for defense again, but no one is trying to punish anyone. And our wonderful civil society shrugs its shoulders while holding a latte,” Bezuhla wrote.
According to the MP, public apathy and formalism have become part of the political landscape. She notes that she has not been able to find an effective tool to protest or communicate critical issues, such as the state of the Armed Forces, the mobilization system, and defense training for rear cities.
Threat not only from the enemy but also from within the system
Against the backdrop of constant fighting and actions of Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups in the Pokrovsk sector, another problem is becoming more and more noticeable – the distortion of information within the Ukrainian army.
This is stated in a post by the Voice of the Major Telegram channel, which has attracted the attention of military observers and has become the subject of wider discussion in the expert community.
“Yes, the enemy’s subversive reconnaissance groups are indeed present. But the key threat inside is the systemic distortion of information. From the ranks to the highest levels, the units present a distorted picture. They are afraid of pressure for losses, they are not given the right to maneuver,” writes “Voice of the Major”
Instead of a real picture of the situation, there is often an illusion of control. Commanders are forced to conceal losses or difficult situations in order to avoid sanctions or dismissal. As a result, this can cost the army much more than a temporary loss of position.
The article also emphasizes the need to change the approach: not to punish tactical retreats if they allow the personnel to be saved and regrouped for further actions. According to the authors, decisions have been made recently that could stabilize the situation, without specifying the details.
Stanislav Bunyatov, a veteran officer and former military analyst, also commented on the situation and shared the article on his Facebook page:
“Very accurate about Pokrovsk. Commanders are afraid to tell the truth because the leadership does not like bad news and does not forgive mistakes. Some remain in office “because they are cronies”, while others take off faster than the rotation lasts. This is how we live. The system needs to be changed. But who will do it? Krotevych, Lachen, Sternenko, or me in the telegram channel? It doesn’t work that way,” Bunyatov said on his Telegram channel “Sniper Speaks.”
Pokrovsk is a key logistical link
It is premature to talk about the full presence of Russian troops in Pokrovsk. About this in an exclusive commentary
“It is not about the fact that Russians are already in Pokrovsk. We are talking about separate subversive groups of 5-6 people. Such subversive groups have entered before. Now one such group has been destroyed, there is confirmation that our military were ambushed on the southern outskirts, their vehicle was fired upon and then killed by a drone,” said Stupak.
Pokrovsk has remained one of the main transportation and military hubs in eastern Ukraine since 2014. The main supply routes pass through it: Pokrovsk – Pavlohrad – Dnipro. Loss of control over this area will complicate logistics for a number of frontline areas.
“Look at the DeepState map. The Russians have about 17 kilometers left to “close the neck” of their logistics pocket. If this distance is reduced to 10 km, the city will probably have to be abandoned. Supply will become impossible,” Stupak warned.
What’s next?
According to Stupak, the main goal of the Russians is not necessarily to take Pokrovsk itself, but to cut it off, making it impossible to supply ammunition, water, medicine and troop rotation. Later, they will try to develop the offensive towards Kostyantynivka, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
Regarding the enemy’s potential advance into Dnipropetrovs’k region, the expert noted that it is unclear whether these are real plans or an attempt to distract the Ukrainian Armed Forces and stretch the Ukrainian defense.
