Frosts hit the nut market: what will happen to prices
11 July 16:01
Severe spring frosts in Turkey have already led to significant changes in the global hazelnut market: in July 2025, wholesale prices for hazelnuts increased by 30% compared to April. This is reported by "Komersant Ukrainian" with reference to EastFruit.
Turkey is traditionally the largest producer of hazelnuts in the world, accounting for about 65% of the global total. In the context of a reduced harvest, the influence of the “Turkish factor” on the market is becoming decisive.
According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), in 2025 the country expects a 27.5% decline in hazelnut yields and a 27.7% decline in walnut yields. In some highland regions that suffered the worst frosts, farmers lost 50% to 100% of their crops. Thus, supply risks remain high, especially in the context of growing environmental and climate challenges for agriculture.
Amid the expected shortage, analysts warn that alternative suppliers – in particular Italy, the United States, and Chile – will not be able to fully compensate for global demand in the event of a decline in exports from Turkey. This creates additional risks for large processors, including international corporations that are highly dependent on Turkish hazelnuts.
In particular, the Italian company Ferrero, the producer of Nutella, Ferrero Rocher, and Kinder, annually buys about 25% of the total Turkish harvest. In a commentary to Turkiyetoday, company representatives confirmed that weather factors could affect the volume of supplies. At the same time, Ferrero noted that due to its geographically diversified procurement model, the company is able to mitigate short-term risks.
Ferrero is an Italian family-owned company founded in 1946 in Alba (Piedmont). It is one of the world’s largest confectionery manufacturers. The most famous Ferrero brands are Nutella, Ferrero Rocher, Kinder, Tic Tac, and Mon Chéri. The company is present in more than 170 countries and has dozens of production facilities in Europe, North America and Asia. Ferrero is also the world’s largest consumer of hazelnuts, purchasing up to a quarter of the global harvest annually, particularly in Turkey. The company is known for its closed corporate structure and focus on quality control and vertical supply chain integration.
Despite the decline in yields, Turkey’s export performance in the first half of the year remained high: in the first six months of 2025, the country exported more than 142 thousand tons of hazelnuts worth almost $1.2 billion. However, further export volumes will directly depend on the exact crop losses in key regions of the Black Sea coast.
The context of the Turkish nut sector fits into a broader global trend: prices for agri-food products are soaring due to extreme weather events. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), in June 2025, the global food price index increased by 0.5%. This was mainly due to higher prices for meat, dairy products, oils, and key commodities such as coffee, cocoa, and olive oil.
Climate instability is increasingly becoming a strategic risk factor for food corporations, traders, and retailers. A global shortage of certain crops could lead to supply chain reformatting, contract renegotiation, and a shift in procurement planning focus for 2026.
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