Salaries of UAH 35-40 thousand: Ukrainians’ reality or the Government’s forecast on paper?
8 August 22:43
Wages of Ukrainians may increase by 30-40% over the next three years. This is stated in the forecast of economic and social indicators for 2026-2028, laid down in the Cabinet of Ministers’ Resolution No. 946 of August 6, 2025, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
Among the key macrofinancial parameters is a significant increase in average wages. According to the government, Ukrainians will see a noticeable recovery in income growth, which directly depends on the improvement of the security situation and the end or suspension of hostilities. If the situation at the frontline stabilizes, the rapid increase in earnings will be a powerful stimulus for economic recovery.
Under the optimistic scenario, if the war ends, the average nominal salary will increase from the baseline in 2025 (UAH 24,389) to UAH 30,240 in 2026 (24%), then to UAH 35,268 in 2027 (16.6%) and UAH 39,758 in 2028 (12.7%).
If the conflict continues, wage increases will be somewhat more moderate. Thus, in 2026, the nominal average salary will be UAH 30,032 (23.1%), in 2027 – UAH 34,808(15.9%), and in 2028 it will increase to UAH 39,436 (13.3%).
Thus, in three years, the average salary may increase by 30-40%, and if we look at the annual increase (it is approximately UAH 5,000 per year). Such rates are critical for restoring the purchasing power of the population and stimulating domestic demand.
Despite the promising nominal figures, economists warn of a gap between nominal and real income growth. According to the State Statistics Service and government estimates, inflation has outpaced wage growth since the beginning of 2022: nominal incomes grew by 53.8%, while inflation grew by 54%, causing real wages to fall by about 0.3%. This creates risks for the real growth of the welfare of Ukrainians, even under the conditions of the forecast.
In the economic section of the forecast, the Government has combined wage growth with an optimistic scenario of infrastructure restoration, increased construction, and the launch of new businesses. This should increase employment and tax revenues, as well as strengthen the financial stability of the state. Experts emphasize that the success of the forecast largely depends on stabilizing security, continuing international financial support, and maintaining macro-temperature stability.
In light of these indicators, the key challenges for the Government will be to control inflation and ensure that nominal wage increases are actually translated into real household income growth. This will require synchronizing monetary and fiscal policies, expanding employment and supporting small and medium-sized businesses, and accelerating tax and budget reforms.
The forecast approved by the Cabinet of Ministers demonstrates a strong potential for income growth for Ukrainians, especially if security conditions improve. However, to catch up with the loss of purchasing power, Ukraine needs not only to raise wages, but also to reduce inflationary pressures, maintain macro stability, and modernize the economy.
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