Wages are going up, prices are going up: The NBU has made a forecast until the end of 2025
17 July 2025 19:22
INFOGRAPHICS
The average salary in Ukraine will increase by 15-17% by the end of 2025, Vasyl Furman, a member of the Council of the National Bank of Ukraine, Doctor of Economics, said on the air of a national telethon on July 17. His estimate is reported by "Komersant Ukrainian".
According to the expert, wage growth continues the positive dynamics established last year, when the average salary in Ukraine increased by 23%. He noted that the key factor stimulating the labor market is the shortage of personnel, especially in manufacturing, logistics, trade and the public sector. It is the shortage of workers that forces employers to raise salaries to retain staff and attract new professionals.
The deficit will push wage growth,” commented Furman.
Inflation: from double digits to single digits?
At the same time, according to the NBU Council member, inflationary processes in Ukraine have begun to slow down, which creates additional opportunities for economic stabilization. Thus, in May 2025, inflation was approximately 16%, and in June this figure dropped to 15.3%. This indicates a gradual cooling of the consumer market and an improvement in the macroeconomic situation.
Furman emphasized that the NBU expects a further decline in inflation in the second half of the year, which will allow it to finish 2025 with a rate of less than 10%. The NBU believes that the downward trend in inflation will continue under conditions of a stable exchange rate, controlled energy prices, and prudent monetary policy.
“Inflation is declining, which is a huge plus, and the downward trend in inflation is expected to continue in the second half of the year. Therefore, at the end of the year, it will already be in the single digits, i.e. less than 10%,” Mr . Furman emphasized.
What does this mean for the economy and citizens?
The combination of rising wages and falling inflation is a positive signal for both households and businesses. Rising household incomes boost consumer demand, which in turn supports manufacturing and the service sector. In turn, controlled inflation helps to preserve the purchasing power of the population, reducing the risk of a collapse in real incomes.
However, experts remind that formal growth in the average salary does not always mean a real improvement in welfare, especially given regional inequality, income differences between sectors of the economy, and the dynamics of the hryvnia exchange rate.
Forecasts and expectations
The NBU continues its policy of gradual easing of monetary conditions to support economic recovery from the shocks caused by the full-scale war. In this context, steady wage growth coupled with declining inflation may become the basis for long-term macrofinancial stability.
According to optimistic scenarios, personal income growth may accelerate in 2026, especially if positive trends in foreign trade, international financial aid inflows, and domestic consumption continue.
Read also: Salaries of Ukrainians increased in 2025: who gets the most and why not everyone feels it
Average salary in Ukraine: who gets the most and where in 2025
As of July 2025, the average salary in Ukraine is UAH 25 thousand per month, according to the HR portal Work.ua. This is more than 20% higher than it was in the same period last year. Such dynamics is the result of several interrelated factors: growing demand for specialists, shortage of qualified personnel, business relocation, and the impact of inflationary expectations.
The highest salaries are traditionally recorded in the capital and large regional centers of the western region:
- Kyiv – UAH 30,000
- Lviv – UAH 26,300
- Uzhhorod – UAH 25,000
This is explained by the high concentration of office employment, the IT sector and international business, as well as the growing demand for housing, services and trade in relatively safer regions.
The lowest salaries are in border and frontline regions:
- Sumy – UAH 18,500
- Kherson – UAH 19,000
- Chernihiv – 19,500 UAH
In these regions, the labor market is partially destabilized due to proximity to combat zones, population migration, and loss of infrastructure.
Nevertheless, an overall increase in wages was recorded in almost all regions of the country. For example, in Dnipro, Odesa, Kharkiv, and Rivne, average salaries are already exceeding UAH 22-24 thousand, which is 15-25% higher than in July 2024.
This indicates that businesses are trying to adapt to the new reality by revising their remuneration policies to retain staff and compensate for rising living costs.
Despite the positive dynamics, a key question arises: is salary growth keeping pace with inflation?
Although there is a tendency for inflation to slow down, the annual rate of inflation still significantly affects the purchasing power of Ukrainians. In other words, formal income growth can be “eaten up” by prices for food, housing, transportation, and utilities.
In view of this, economists emphasize that it is important to take into account not only nominal but also real wages, i.e. the amount remaining after inflationary depreciation.
Amid business adaptation, monetary policy easing, and labor market stabilization, experts predict continued wage growth in the second half of 2025. This is especially true for industries with an acute staff shortage: IT, medicine, construction, logistics, and the agricultural sector.
However, inflationary risks remain a key challenge, especially in the context of possible changes in the foreign exchange market, fluctuations in imported energy prices, and logistical problems due to military threats.
Salary dynamics in Ukraine in 2025 will show a significant increase, but remain sensitive to the macroeconomic situation. The real welfare of citizens will continue to depend not only on the number on their paychecks but also on the price tags in stores.
Читайте нас у Telegram: головні новини коротко
