Delays in international aid and the hryvnia exchange rate: what to expect in 2026
12 January 14:57
After record fluctuations in the hryvnia exchange rate in 2025, the issue of currency market stability remains one of the key issues for Ukrainians. Of particular concern are possible delays in international financial assistance, on which the country’s macrofinancial balance largely depends in the context of the war. In an exclusive comment to Komersant, economist and member of the National Bank of Ukraine Council Vasyl Furman explained how critical delays in international financial aid could be for the hryvnia exchange rate and what to expect in 2026.
International aid and hryvnia stability
According to Furman, external financing remains one of the key factors in Ukraine’s macrofinancial stability in the context of full-scale war. It is thanks to international support that the state can cover its budget deficit, maintain reserves, and curb excessive currency fluctuations.
At the same time, delays in receiving funds from partners can put additional pressure on the currency market.
“International financial assistance is a key factor in macrofinancial stability in wartime. Delays can temporarily increase pressure on the currency market, reserves, and expectations,” Furman stressed.
It’s about volatility, not crisis
The expert emphasizes that even in the event of pauses in the receipt of funds, this does not mean that Ukraine is unable to perform its basic functions. The main risk is increased volatility in the currency market and nervousness among market participants.
“At the same time, it is important to emphasize that this is not about Ukraine’s inability to function, but about increased volatility. With predictable and agreed financing schedules, these risks are significantly reduced,” he explained.
Forecast for 2026
Assessing the prospects for next year, Vasyl Furman believes that the risks associated with delays in international aid will be minimal. This is due to the already agreed support programs and expected funding from Ukraine’s key partners.
“If we are talking about 2026, then these risks, in my opinion, are minimal,” said the NBU Council member.
The role of the NBU’s international reserves
In the short term, according to the economist, the National Bank of Ukraine has sufficient reserves to keep the situation under control. International reserves allow it to smooth out exchange rate fluctuations and respond to temporary shocks.
“In general, international assistance is crucial in the medium and long term, but in the short term, the NBU has sufficient international reserves to keep the situation on the currency market under control,” Furman concluded.
Thus, even in the event of possible delays in external financing, the Ukrainian financial system remains stable and the currency market remains manageable.
