Zelensky warns of an “Afghanistan scenario” in Ukraine: is it possible?
19 February 14:27
President Zelenskyy has warned that the cessation of hostilities could lead to consequences similar to the fall of Afghanistan in 2021.
It is known that the “Afghan scenario” is a term often used to describe a situation where a country falls quickly and defenselessly under the onslaught of an aggressor after the withdrawal of external military forces or the loss of support from international allies.
For example, this happened in Afghanistan when, after the withdrawal of U.S. troops and allies, the Taliban quickly took over the country, and the U.S.-backed Afghan government was unable to put up much of a fight and fled. The result was the fall of the central government and the Taliban’s return to power after 20 years of war.
However, military expert Ivan Stupak explains why this comparison is false and what real threats Ukraine faces. Are the US and Europe ready to continue their support? What could be Russia’s demands in case of negotiations – in the article
Comparing Ukraine to Afghanistan is incorrect, as the situations in these countries are significantly different. This opinion was expressed in an exclusive commentary by
military expert Ivan Stupak expressed this opinion in an exclusive interview with "Komersant Ukrainian".
“The Americans have been in Afghanistan for 20 years, spending up to $140 billion a year in the best years. They tried to change traditional Afghan values to European ones, educated children, officials, and the military, but corruption and inaction of the army led to the rapid fall of the government. Ukraine is a completely different story,” said Stupak.
According to Stupak, Zelenskyy’s key message is to call on the allies not to stop supporting Ukraine. After all, there is a risk that the United States and Europe may reduce or stop supplying weapons, which will make it more difficult to resist the aggressor.
“There will be no rapid fall of Ukraine, but without sufficient support we will face a grueling struggle. The best guarantee for our security is long-term contracts for the supply of weapons and the deployment of production facilities in Ukraine. For example, a plant producing 90,000 shells a month will be a much more reliable guarantee than any signed documents,” believes Ivan Stupak.
Negotiations with the Kremlin: What demands can Russia make and how can Ukraine respond?
Stupak also suggests that Russia may put forward a number of demands in the event of negotiations, including Ukraine’s refusal to return the occupied territories militarily, lifting of sanctions, or return of frozen Russian assets.
At the same time, he believes that Ukraine has certain levers of influence, particularly in the energy sector, which can be used to negotiate.
“So far, I do not see a realistic scenario in which such agreements will be reached, but Ukraine has room for maneuver and bargaining,” summarized Ivan Stupak.
So, despite the fact that Russia’s demands during the negotiations pose new challenges for Ukraine, Ukraine still has room for bargaining.
