Harvest, rockets, grain corridor: how farmers and analysts assess the export situation
29 July 2025 14:36
ANALYSIS
Despite the war and constant threats from Russia, the Black Sea Grain Corridor remains the main logistics route for Ukrainian exports. Agricultural sector experts and analysts agree that the route not only provides foreign exchange earnings for the economy, but is also the number one military target for Russia, which is trying to destroy the infrastructure of this critical route.
Ukraine is currently in the middle of a harvest season, which means that the corridor’s capacity will soon become more important. Therefore, "Komersant Ukrainian" asked experts whether the Black Sea Grain Corridor is working effectively today and whether the Russians can create any problems with its functioning.
The corridor works stably and efficiently – farmers are satisfied
Leonid Kozachenko, President of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation, emphasizes that the grain corridor is currently the main export channel through which up to 85% of agricultural products pass.
“This is our main logistics hub, which moves not only agricultural products, but also many other products of the economy,” he explains,
– explains Kozachenko.
He notes that the railroad accounts for only about 10% of exports, mainly to the EU, and even less for road transport (up to 3%). And in general, exports to the EU account for only about 10% of all exports.
“This is not bad, because logistics costs have decreased and producers have been able to make more profit,” he adds,
– he adds.
His opinion is confirmed by Denys Marchuk, deputy head of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council. According to him, export activity will only increase from August:
“The corridor is working. Grain is being exported, and a more active phase has already begun. Wheat and rye are the products that are being exported en masse.”
At the same time, experts recognize that the threat from Russia has not disappeared. Especially for Odesa’s port infrastructure.
“The Russians will certainly continue to attack. They are always hitting the infrastructure in Odesa, trying to do damage. This is understandable, unfortunately. It is clear that certain security measures are being taken by the leadership of the naval forces and the regional administration to ensure the passage of ships,”
– Mr. Marchuk said.
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Grain campaign: harvest forecasts and logistical challenges
The current harvesting campaign has already yielded more than 15 million tons of grain, including peas, says Leonid Kozachenko. According to him, up to 50 million tons of harvest is expected this year.
However, the situation is not uniform. The east and south of the country are suffering from drought and spring frosts:
“In these areas, the yield is 2.5-3 tons per hectare. While in the west and in the center, in some areas, it even exceeds 7 tons,”
explains the agricultural expert.
In general, more than half of the country’s area will yield lower yields this year, the expert says:
“Unfortunately, 55-56% of the area will have significantly lower yields, because the cold climate conditions have negatively affected this process.”
Grain is not only an export, but also a resource for war
Political analyst Oleh Lisnyi draws attention to the underlying motives behind Russia’s attacks on grain infrastructure. He believes that the destruction of the corridor is part of an economic war and a strategy to weaken Ukraine.
“Grain hunting is one of the elements of genocidal practices that Russia has used before. Grain is money. And money is support for the army. It’s very simple,”
– he explains.
Lesnyi emphasizes that the export of grain from the occupied territories, which took place in the first months of the war, was a systemic policy of the enemy.
“Now we are talking not only about hunger. It’s about the economic component – Russia wants to limit Ukraine’s money that can be spent on defense,” he concludes,
– he concludes.
Conclusion
The story with Ukrainian grain is no longer just export logistics, but part of a larger geopolitical war. And in this war, the Black Sea grain corridor functions as Ukraine’s economic artery. Its efficiency ensures foreign exchange earnings and the viability of the agricultural sector.
At the same time, the route remains under constant threat, as it is a strategic target for Russia. There is no doubt that the Russians will attack the relevant infrastructure at the first opportunity. That is why the achievements of the Defense Forces, which managed to ensure the current security of the corridor, are all the more valuable. Continuation of this vector, aimed at securing Ukrainian exports, is one of the important tasks of the entire state leadership.
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