“No Ukrainian politician will sign a subsoil agreement with the US” – economist
3 April 2025 13:52
OPINION
Ukrainians may not be concerned about the bondage agreement on subsoil imposed on us by the United States, as there is simply no suicidal politician in Ukraine who would sign it. This was stated by economist Oleg Pendzin in an exclusive interview for "Komersant Ukrainian".
The expert assesses the provisions of the agreement in its current form as practically impossible to fulfill, as they simply deprive Ukraine of part of its sovereignty. Therefore, none of the Ukrainian officials will sign it, he believes.
“Who will take the responsibility to recognize the conditional $115 billion that Biden gave us as grants as debt? And who will sign the provision on sending rent payments from Ukrnafta instead of the state budget to this purely conditional American fund? And who, for example, will agree to the loss of economic sovereignty due to the American veto on any investor that comes in?”
– the economist asks rhetorically.
He notes that the condition of the US veto on other investors also puts an end to Ukraine’s European integration aspirations. Therefore, it is simply impossible to sign this agreement.
Therefore, according to Oleh Pendzyn, Ukraine should prepare for a new wave of hate and disinformation from the US President.
Draft agreement between Ukraine and the United States: what is known
In February 2025, the United States and Ukraine reached a preliminary agreement aimed at jointly developing and managing Ukraine’s mineral resources. The agreement, known as the Bilateral Agreement Establishing Conditions for the Reconstruction Investment Fund, provides for the establishment of a joint investment fund to rebuild Ukraine’s war-ravaged economy. The main objective of the fund is to attract and reinvest revenues from Ukraine’s substantial mineral wealth to contribute to its recovery and long-term stability.
Key provisions of the draft agreement
Establishment of the Reconstruction Investment Fund. According to the text of the draft agreement published by The Kyiv Independent, the fund will be jointly owned and managed by the governments of the United States and Ukraine. The ownership and financial interests of each party will be defined in a subsequent agreement on the fund. The fund will be managed by representatives of both governments, and more detailed terms will be set out in a subsequent agreement.
Ukraine’s contribution. Ukraine commits to allocate 50% of its future revenues from the monetization of its natural resources, including minerals, hydrocarbons, oil, natural gas and other extractive infrastructure, to the Reconstruction Investment Fund. These contributions will continue until the amount reaches USD 500 billion. It is important to note that current sources of revenue that are already included in the general budget of Ukraine are not covered by this agreement.
The role of the United States. The U.S. government is committed to maintaining a long-term financial commitment aimed at developing a stable and economically prosperous Ukraine. This includes investments, financial instruments, and other tangible and intangible assets critical to Ukraine’s recovery. However, the agreement does not include specific security guarantees or continued arms transfers to Ukraine; these issues will be negotiated separately.
Provisions of the agreement as seen by MP Zheleznyak
MP Yaroslav Zheleznyak said that he had seen the text of the agreement and was horrified by it.
The MP described in detail the key points of the draft that cause concern:
- Management by 5 people, 3 of them from the United States with full veto power.
- We are already talking about all minerals. That is, there is oil and gas, both new and existing.
- All over the territory of Ukraine.
- We are talking about production by both state and private companies.
- The money is converted immediately into foreign currency.
- The fund’s money is withdrawn abroad. If for some reason something is not received on our part, we pay extra.
- The U.S. contribution is the assistance we have already received since 2022. And they can make a profit at their own discretion. And they receive the first (and then Ukraine) 4% of the “royalties” from the Fund.
- The agreement is valid indefinitely. It can be changed or terminated only with the permission of the Americans.
- “First night” rights for all new infrastructure projects and the right to veto the sale of resources to other countries.
- Nothing about security guarantees. Not even a hint.
Yaroslav Zheleznyak, MP
Meanwhile, the government assures that the agreementdoes not provide for the transfer of subsoil use rights or any property rights.
According to Olha Stefanishyna, Vice Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration, the framework agreement between Ukraine and the United States is not an international treaty in the classical sense, but rather a political agreement that defines the intentions of the parties to create a joint Investment Recovery Fund.
