“No European energy system could withstand such blows” – Razumkov Centre analyst on the prospects of domestic energy
5 June 2024 13:49
BLITZ
Ukrainian cities are without electricity for half a day, and the government is raising tariffs. The Financial Times writes that Ukraine has lost 60% of its power generation, and Prime Minister Shmyhal warns that the austerity measures will last for several years. What is happening with the Ukrainian energy sector, what should Ukrainians expect and what should they stock up on to gain at least minimal energy independence? These and other questions were asked to Volodymyr Omelchenko, Director of Energy and Infrastructure Programmes at the Razumkov Centre, in a blitz interview with Kommersant Ukrainskyi 
Mr Omelchenko, how do you perceive Prime Minister Shmyhal’s statements about years without electricity? Is this a failure of communication between the government and its people, who are already having a hard time emotionally with the war and are hearing from the authorities that it will not get any better? Or maybe a hint that the war will last for years?
This is not new. For example, I said that there would be serious power cuts across the country back in October 2022. Ukraine has suffered serious energy losses. 50% of hydroelectric power plants have been destroyed, and the rest of the generation is also suffering terrible losses. And all this will take many years to restore. You can’t restore it in six months or a year, and you can’t do it during a war. And they will shell even more, it will all continue. So this statement is relevant and it is true. You don’t have to tell people lies. Everyone needs to know that the situation is difficult.
Why did such a shortage suddenly appear in May-June? Even though Ukraine has been under no lesser rocket attacks since 2022.
Because there is a war going on. The longer it lasts, the more damage is done. The dynamics of energy infrastructure destruction exceeds the pace of its recovery. No power system in Europe could withstand such destruction. How many thousands of missiles, how many Shaheds have already arrived?
Another problem is the delay in the delivery of air defence systems and ammunition from our partners when this political bargaining was going on in Washington. The Russian Federation took advantage of this shortage of air defence systems and delivered impressive strikes that we were unable to counter.
The dynamics of energy infrastructure destruction exceeds the pace of its recovery. No power system in Europe could have withstood such destruction.
What formula is used to calculate the electricity deficit in the grid?
It is calculated in accordance with the Electricity Transmission System Code. This is a rather complex code, with formulas and calculations.
How much electricity did we export? We used to do it even during the war, so we had a surplus. And now? Are we no longer trading electricity with other countries?
We are importing electricity. Moreover, in May we imported twice as much as in April. There are no electricity exports now. Small volumes of exports were made in April during surplus hours.
Solar panels or portable stations?
Has the number of solar stations increased? Should Ukrainians in the private sector install solar panels in this situation?
Everyone has to decide for themselves. Yes, it makes sense for the summer period. Especially for owners of private houses. You can even unite and install solar panels and storage systems together – when, for example, you accumulate energy during the day and consume it during peak hours. But it seems to me that it is not entirely rational to rely on solar panels in winter.
Now there is a rush for portable charging stations, and prices have risen. Is this an artificial hype or is it worth buying?
The hype is not artificial. It is reasonable to buy. A 500-600-watt station is enough to charge all mobile devices, a laptop, and a router. For a refrigerator, you need something more powerful – somewhere around 2,000 kW. But this is a large and very expensive appliance.
