Betrayal or strategy: what are the consequences of stopping intelligence sharing for the Armed Forces?
7 March 2025 13:56
ANALYSIS
The United States has temporarily suspended the provision of weapons and intelligence to Ukraine, reviewing all aspects of it. This was confirmed by CIA Director Ratcliffe. At the same time, according to the head of the French Ministry of Defense, Sebastian Lecorneuil, France has expressed its readiness to replace the United States in providing intelligence to Ukraine. However, this step by the United States already poses risks to international security. Could the US decision to stop intelligence sharing be a critical mistake? How will this affect Ukraine’s combat capability and the capabilities of the Armed Forces? And will the United States be able to maintain the trust of its allies in the intelligence community? Details are in the article by Komersant ukrainskyi
The decision to pause intelligence sharing is not just a step backwards, but a real stab in the back to a strategic ally. This opinion was expressed by military expert Yuriy Shvets.
“This is an outright betrayal. Moreover, it is not just a betrayal of an ally, but of a strategic partner with whom the United States has a treaty. Such steps seriously compromise Washington in the international arena,”
– the expert emphasizes.
According to Shvets, this decision could have serious consequences not only for Ukraine but also for the United States itself. He points out that a significant part of the intelligence information received by the US intelligence comes through cooperation with foreign intelligence services. Therefore, a demonstrative refusal to provide data to Ukraine could undermine the trust of US partners in the intelligence community and lead to a decrease in information sharing.
A separate threat is that the ban on intelligence sharing with Ukraine applies not only to the United States, but also to its Five Eyes allies, including the United Kingdom. According to analysts, this is an even more serious blow to the Ukrainian Armed Forces than the suspension of arms supplies.
Consequently, this US decision poses serious risks to Ukraine’s defense capabilities and could affect the course of the war. According to the expert, the issue of intelligence is critical, and its consequences will be felt for a long time.
The ban on intelligence transfer is a more serious threat to the Armed Forces than the cessation of arms supplies
In an exclusive commentary
“This is an even more serious blow to the Armed Forces than the cessation of arms supplies. Howitzers and shells can be found in other countries, but the unique intelligence information that the Americans receive cannot be replaced. From now on, the Ukrainian army will have serious difficulties in conducting targeted attacks on Russian rear facilities, military columns and command centers,”
– explained Roman Svitan.
He also warned that refusal to strike the enemy’s rear positions would lead to a significant reinforcement of Russian troops on the front line.
“Now the Russians are afraid to bring their reserves closer to the front line, because we are hitting them in the rear. But if these strikes stop, they will be able to pull up their forces without any obstacles. The consequences of this decision will be felt by all the cities along the front line – from Mykolaiv, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia to Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Kupiansk and Kharkiv. The latter is already under constant enemy fire,”
– Svitan emphasized.
According to the expert, such a strategy is dangerous for Ukraine and can change the course of hostilities in favor of Russia.
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ISW: Stopping intelligence sharing between the US and Ukraine will strengthen Russian aviation and change the course of hostilities
The cessation of intelligence sharing between the United States and Ukraine could significantly affect the balance of power at the front and give Russian aviation more opportunities for strikes. This is stated in a new report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts note that without American intelligence, it will be more difficult for Ukraine to strike Russian air defense systems. This will allow enemy aircraft to act more aggressively, shorten the distance of launching missiles and cruise bombs, which will significantly increase the threat to Ukrainian cities and military facilities.
“The Kremlin has repeatedly insisted on the cessation of any foreign assistance to Ukraine as part of potential peace agreements,”
– ISW reminded.
The analysts also emphasized that, thanks to the intelligence data obtained, the Ukrainian military could conduct targeted strikes on strategically important military facilities in Russia. For example, the destruction of ammunition depots in Toropets (Tver region) and the Tikhoretsky arsenal (Krasnodar region) significantly reduced the stockpile of Russian missiles and shells.
In addition, the strikes on military targets in Russia made it difficult for the enemy to use massive bombs and missiles against Ukrainian forward positions. The loss of these capabilities could significantly change the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine’s favor.
Alternative sources of intelligence
Despite the temporary suspension of intelligence transmission, this will not deprive Ukraine of access to critical information, as European partners and private companies are already taking on this role. This was reported by Forbes.
Thus, although American intelligence has unique capabilities, European allies also have powerful space resources. Despite their smaller scale, their satellite technologies can provide Ukraine with critical data.
Back in 2022, Ukraine leased a radar surveillance satellite from the Finnish company Iceye for $17 million. Germany financed the expansion of Ukrainian intelligence capabilities through cooperation with Rheinmetall and Iceye.
And the Netherlands spent $13 million on access to satellite imagery from the American company Maxar, whose vehicles regularly photograph the Earth’s surface. However, the day before, this American company denied Ukraine access to satellite images.
As Forbes emphasizes, even the US military and intelligence services do not always receive all the necessary data on their own. They also depend on information sharing with partners. However, due to the change of political course in Washington associated with Donald Trump, this interaction may be jeopardized. Will this affect global security? Will Europe be able to compensate for the loss of American intelligence for Ukraine? One thing is clear: the US attempts to “blind” Ukraine will not achieve their goal, as technological progress and international support give our country new opportunities.
Checkmate: US allies may limit intelligence sharing due to Trump’s Russia policy
Some US allies are considering reducing intelligence sharing with Washington. This may be a response to the conciliatory approach of the Donald Trump administration to Russia. This was reported by NBC News, citing four sources with direct knowledge of the discussions.
According to the interlocutors, including one foreign official, the allies are concerned about protecting their intelligence assets. They fear that sensitive information or the identities of agents could be accidentally disclosed, jeopardizing both individual operations and international security cooperation.
If such restrictions come into effect, it could significantly affect the global intelligence sharing system and change the balance of power in regions where Russia continues its aggressive policy.
