“Winter without outages?” Ukrenergo explained what determines the stability of electricity supply
15 September 16:09
Ukraine can get through the winter without blackouts, provided that Russia does not launch large-scale and systematic attacks on the power system. This was stated by Ukrenergo, emphasizing that the energy sector is preparing according to plan, but the main risk is new massive shelling, Ukrinform writes, [ komersant] reports.
What is known now
Ukrenergo emphasizes that
- part of the lost generation has been restored;
- damaged transmission elements are already in operation;
- distributed generation facilities, both industrial and private backup, are being actively connected;
- the increase in gas turbine and gas piston generation since the beginning of the year has been more than 200%.
The company is also preparing the transmission system for the winter: restoring equipment, creating stocks for repairs, strengthening the physical protection of facilities and the technical capabilities of repair teams.
The main condition is security against attacks
Ukrenergo recognizes that the forecast depends on the enemy’s actions. If Russia resumes massive missile and drone attacks in the winter, the system may again suffer significant damage. The success will depend on the pace of restoration, the work of repair teams and the protection of critical infrastructure.
How they plan to balance the system
- All available generation. Thermal, hydro, and nuclear power, as well as distributed sources, will be used to cover peak consumption.
- Imports from the EU. Ukraine is counting on a commercial exchange of electricity with European countries.
- Emergency scenarios. Thanks to trained repair crews, the system will be able to resume operation even after serious shocks.
Why it is important
For Ukrainians, the issue of power outages remains one of the most painful after the winter of 2022-2023, when Russian massive strikes left millions of people without electricity, heat, and water. Last winter, the system survived thanks to stockpiles, repairs, and international assistance. This year, Ukraine expects to be even more resilient thanks to distributed generation and new protective solutions.
As a reminder, in November 2022, Russian strikes damaged more than half of Ukraine’s power grid, leading to the most massive blackouts in the country’s modern history.
In 2023-2024, Ukrainian energy companies and international partners invested in protecting critical infrastructure and developing backup sources.
This summer, Ukraine also launched new energy storage systems that can power hundreds of thousands of homes during peak loads.
Ukraine is entering the winter with a plan and a safety margin – but the stability of the lights will depend on whether the energy sector avoids any more massive blows. Ukrenergo admits that the “winter without outages” scenario is real, but there is no guarantee – because the key word this winter is “if” again.
