Winter is coming: is a “gas blackout” possible in Ukraine?
15 October 18:00
EXCLUSIVE
Over the two weeks of October, not only transformer substations and thermal power plants came under enemy attack, but also the Ukrainian gas transportation system and gas production facilities. This gave some people reason to talk about a possible “gas blackout.” Komersant found out whether this is possible.
On the night of October 3, the Russians launched the largest massive attack on gas transportation and gas production facilities since the beginning of the full-scale war, particularly in Kharkiv and Poltava regions. Due to the enemy attacks, gas supply was interrupted for some time in Shostka, Sumy region, and surrounding settlements. on October 10, enemy shelling damaged gas infrastructure facilities in Zaporizhzhia. These and other attacks have given rise to some people talking about the possibility of a “gas blackout.” But how realistic is such a blackout? ExPro analyst Mykhailo Svyshcho explains.
A blackout is a complete shutdown. If we are talking about electricity and the country’s energy system, it is when it ceases to function as a whole. If a similar term is applied to gas networks, it means a simultaneous shutdown of gas across the country. I think that given the extensive system of gas pipelines, gas storage facilities, and gas production facilities, we do not face the threat of a gas blackout. The system is branched and there are opportunities to switch between different pipelines, between different stations to ensure gas supply. Nevertheless, there is a threat of certain gas supply outages in certain regions while the facilities responsible for distribution and transportation of natural gas are being restored,” the expert notes.
“The next winter will be the most difficult since the beginning of the full-scale invasion – many people will agree with this assessment of Kharkiv Mayor Igor Terekhov. But while for some it is a reason to prepare as best they can, for others it is a reason to make apocalyptic predictions and draw appropriate scenarios. The light version of the gas supply problems is as follows: first, gas supply may be limited for industrial enterprises, and then it will be the turn of district heating companies. As a result, the temperature in apartment buildings may be lower than usual this winter. And gas will burn, but not as warmly as usual due to lower pressure in the system.
And this, of course, is not the whole apocalypse that the Kremlin wants to create for Ukrainians. Russia’s leadership is apparently inspired by the example of the Ukrainian city of Alchevsk, which in 2006 was left without heating in 20-degree temperatures due to a heating main breakdown. In just one day of severe cold, water froze in the heating system in most buildings, causing pipes to burst. It took a whole month and the help of the whole country to overcome the consequences of the accident.
The authorities – both central and local – had much more time than a month to prepare for the winter challenges. And there are those who can now declare their readiness for any blackout.
For example, Pavlo Karas, the head of Cherkasyteplocomunenergo , told the Vycherpno media outlet that the city has built a multi-level system of protection against electrical blackouts and created its own power generation. Cherkasy has also prepared for problems with gas supply.
In the event of a gas blackout, we will provide heat to the city’s hospitals, and we will ensure that the homes of Cherkasy residents are frost-free, so to speak. That is, we will ensure that in the absence of gas in Cherkasy, the temperature in the house is above freezing,” the official assured.
According to Pavlo Karas, Cherkasy utilities have found a solution that will help prevent the system from freezing and ensure minimal comfort in homes until gas supply is restored.
“We have implemented appropriate technical solutions. We received additional funding from the city budget and the company. We have diesel burners that will work. Thanks to these diesel burners, it will be possible to ensure that when the temperature outside is below zero, the temperature inside the house will be above zero. It can be plus 8, it can be plus 10, depending on the ambient temperature,” the official explained.
“In fact, it looks like such a good solution that can save lives in the event of a complete gas supply outage.” That’s how Mykhailo Svyshcho, an analyst at ExPro, assessed the technical solution of Cherkasy utilities.
“This is a good solution. And it’s good that the local authorities are looking for some solutions. I think other cities should do the same,” the expert emphasized.
In his opinion, it is always advisable for us to prepare for the worst-case scenario, given that Ukraine is in a full-scale war and has a terrorist neighbor who continues to destroy Ukraine’s life support systems.
And, according to Oleh Harnyk, an expert at the Analytical Center of the Association of Ukrainian Cities, starting in 2022, the communities of Ukrainian cities and towns are actively working to ensure the supply of heat and hot water to consumers even in the face of constant attacks by the aggressor. He assures that proper conclusions have been drawn from the experience of the previous years of war.
Author – Serhiy Vasylovych
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