“Indian summer or real fall: forecasters explained what to expect in October
26 September 2025 20:58
FORECAST
The meteorological summer in Ukraine is already coming to an end. The next few days will bring a gradual drop in temperature, but the weather will remain relatively warm during the day, and such a short period can be considered “Indian summer,” meteorologist Natalia Golenya explained in an exclusive commentary to "Komersant Ukrainian".
For now, summer is probably over. A meteorological summer. After this, there will be a cold snap, but it’s like this… It’s cold at night and warm during the day. Maybe this is the Indian summer,” the forecaster notes.
What is Indian summer and when to expect it
Golenya reminds us that there are no clear parameters for defining Indian summer. It’s just a period of stable dry and warm weather after the first autumn cold snap.
There are no parameters of the Indian summer. It’s just warm, fine weather. If the average daily temperature is below 15°C, the meteorological summer is over. And if it’s still dry and sunny after that, then it’s Indian summer,” she explains.
According to her, the current warming can still be considered an Indian summer, but it is difficult to say for sure when it will end.
Forecast for the next week
The forecaster adds that Ukrainians will experience a moderate cold snap next week.
I haven’t looked that far ahead. So far, I understand that next week will be cool. That is, there will be frosts at night, and during the day it will be 10… 15, sometimes up to 17 degrees,” says Golenya.
Frosts and cold snaps are coming to Ukraine: forecast from weather forecaster Natalia Ptukha
In the last days of September, Ukrainians will experience a real fall. The weather forecaster warned of a noticeable drop in temperature, rains and the first frosts on the ground and sometimes even in the air.
Natalia Ptukha added that it is not a sharp invasion of cold, but rather short-term night frosts that are typical for this period. No prolonged cold snap is predicted: the temperature will remain relatively comfortable during the day, without significant changes.
We will continue to receive new portions of Arctic air from northern directions, which, unfortunately, will cause such a dangerous phenomenon as autumn frosts down to -3 degrees at night. The temperature in the northern regions and in the air may drop to zero. Of course, the frosts will be short-lived. Accordingly, the days will also be quite fresh. That is, we will no longer be talking about summer temperatures, but classic autumn ones,” the forecaster predicted.
At the same time, daytime highs will remain fairly stable.
Over the next three days and for the next five days, they will also be within 12… 19 degrees.” “It will be a little warmer in the south and Transcarpathia – closer to 19 degrees, and in the rest of the territory and in the northern part, low temperatures,” Ptukha said.
In addition to nighttime cold, moderate rainfall is forecast. Rains will be observed in most regions, but will not be prolonged.
The meteorologist does not rule out that the “Indian summer” will come, but probably a little later. After a brief cold snap, a period of dry and sunny weather is possible, which may last for several days.
According to the forecaster, the “Indian summer” in September is rather an exception. Most often, it is observed in October, when after the first frost, stable warm and rain-free weather is established.
Rains and frosts or new temperature records? “Ukrhydrometcenter has given a forecast for October 2025
According to Ukrhydrometcenter forecasters, the average monthly temperature in October is expected to be 7…13 degrees, which is 1 degree higher than the climate norm.
Monthly precipitation is expected to reach 31-77 mm, with 51-101 mm in the Carpathians and the Crimean mountains, which is within the range of 80-120% of the norm.
Thus, there are several days of transition ahead, when temperatures may drop to zero at night, but remain quite warm during the day. If this weather lasts for several weeks, forecasters will consider the Indian summer to be ongoing.
Weather in Ukraine in October: a brief historical description
According to statistics published by the Ukrainian Weather Center, the average monthly air temperature in Ukraine is 6…13 degrees, with 4…5 degrees in the Carpathians.
The absolute minimum air temperature is -5…-16 degrees, in the northern, central, eastern regions and in the Carpathians in some places -17…-23 degrees, in Crimea in some places 0…-3 degrees.
The absolute maximum temperature will be 26…34 degrees, in Zaporizhzhya region and Crimea – up to 35 degrees, in the highlands of the Carpathians – from 20 to 21 degrees.
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The average daily temperature drops by 8° in the third (in most northern regions – in the second) decade of October, only in the southern part of the country and in some areas of Zakarpattia in the first decade of November.
The average monthly precipitation is 29-54 mm, 64-84 mm in the Carpathians and the Crimean mountains, 86-106 mm in Zakarpattia, and up to 129 mm in the highlands of the Carpathians.
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