Gasoline from Belarus saves the Russian market: why imports have quadrupled
8 October 19:40
In September, Belarusian gasoline shipments to Russia by rail quadrupled compared to the previous month. According to Reuters, Belarus shipped 49 thousand tons of gasoline (approximately 14.5 thousand barrels per day) and another 33 thousand tons of diesel fuel to Russia, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
For comparison, in August the volumes were four times less.
This sharp jump is attributed to a fuel shortage in Russia after Ukrainian drones attacked oil refineries.
Why is this important?
Belarus has long been integrated into the Russian energy market:
- The country’s two main refineries – Naftan and Mozyr – have an annual capacity of up to 12 million tons each.
- They produce less – about 9 million tons per year, or about 180 thousand barrels per day.
But even these volumes are enough to influence the situation on the Russian market, especially in times of crisis.
What about transit?
Belarus not only supplies gasoline to Russia, but also transits it through Russian ports.
- In September, such transit amounted to 140 thousand tons, which is 1% more than in August.
- At the same time, in January-September, transshipment in ports fell by almost 40% year-on-year to just 1.17 million tons.
The reason for this is a reduction in oil refining.
Fuel crisis in Russia
Russia faced a shortage of gasoline and diesel in the summer and fall of 2025:
- 20 regions of the Russian Federation and the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine experienced interruptions;
- all gasoline brands, including A100, disappeared in Crimea on September 24;
- in Sevastopol, the authorities imposed limits on the sale of fuel;
- since July, the number of gas stations in Russia has decreased by 360 stations (minus 2.6%).
To stabilize the market, the Russian government has banned the export of gasoline and restricted the export of other fuels until the end of 2025.
Why is this happening now?
- Drone attacks by theUkrainian armedforces: Strikes on refineries have reduced domestic refining in Russia.
- Dependence on Belarus: Minsk has become an airbag for Moscow.
- Domestic demand: Russia cannot afford a deficit in the pre-winter period.
What’s next
Analysts predict that Belarus will continue to increase supplies, but:
- its own refineries are not operating at full capacity;
- the reduction in transit shows that the resource is limited.
In fact, Russia has found itself in a situation where its dependence on Belarusian gasoline is increasing, and its strategic vulnerability to attacks on refineries is growing.
As a reminder, since March 2021, Belarus has been using Russian ports to transship oil products.
In the fall of 2024, supplies to the Russian market were interrupted for almost a year.
In September 2025, amid shortages in Russia and the occupied Crimea, Minsk sharply increased supplies.
