No blackouts: expert gives encouraging forecast for winter
11 September 2025 11:49
FORECAST
Energy expert Gennadiy Ryabtsev has given an optimistic forecast for the heating season in Ukraine. Unlike last winter, experts do not expect any serious power outages this time, he told "Komersant Ukrainian" in an exclusive commentary.
None of the scenarios involves systemic failures
“There are different scenarios, all of them are being calculated. But none of these scenarios, unlike last year’s, foresees systemic disruptions in electricity supply,”
– assured Ryabtsev, commenting on the readiness of the Ukrainian power system for winter.
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Peak consumption: when to expect the highest loads
According to the expert, traditionally, the highest electricity consumption occurs during the heating season due to low temperatures. However, consumption figures have changed slightly compared to the pre-war period.
“The peak consumption is always during the heating season. But before the full-scale war, it grew by about a third, and now it is about 20% higher than the average for the year,”
– explains Ryabtsev.
The expert also spoke about daily fluctuations in energy consumption. Traditionally, the least electricity is used at night, while the main peak occurs in the evening hours – from 19 to 22 in summer and from 17 to 22 in winter. An additional peak is observed in the morning from 7 to 9 am.
Factors influencing consumption
Mr. Ryabtsev noted that the recent peak consumption was lower due to several factors: lower air temperatures, which reduced the need for air conditioning, and the holiday season, which traditionally reduces energy consumption both in industry and among household consumers.
The expert’s optimistic forecast for the stable operation of the power system this winter gives hope that Ukrainians will not face large-scale blackouts.
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