Security guarantees, “peacekeepers” and Trump: military expert on diplomatic games around Ukraine
20 August 19:13
This week, Ukraine may move closer to formalizing a new system of international security guarantees. According to Bloomberg, it is not only about diplomatic support, but also about the potential deployment of European military contingents under a future peace agreement. France and the United Kingdom, according to the newspaper’s sources, are already discussing the details of their troops’ participation on Ukrainian territory. According to preliminary information, about ten countries may join this initiative.
Against this backdrop, discussions continue on the role of the United States. US President Donald Trump recently said that Ukraine would receive certain security guarantees, but he ruled out the option of NATO membership. Moreover, he called Ukraine a “buffer between Russia and Europe,” which prompted criticism and questions about the depth of his understanding of the situation in the region and at the front.
The statements were made against the backdrop of comments by French President Emmanuel Macron, who noted that the next two weeks would be crucial in forming an agreed package of security arrangements for Ukraine. According to him, European allies are considering the possibility of participating in non-combat missions, although the exact tasks that could be assigned to these forces have not yet been detailed.
What could be the new formats of international support? Are European partners ready to move from political statements to practical participation? And to what extent does the position of the United States, in particular Donald Trump, take into account Ukrainian interests and the realities of the war – read more in the article "Komersant Ukrainian".
Functionality of the Western military
Amid reports about the possible formation of a package of security guarantees for Ukraine and the participation of the European military in a potential peace agreement, Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military and political observer of the Information Resistance group, shared his vision of the situation in a conversation with KU journalists. He calls the discussion of the Western contingent in Ukraine a part of a political game, not a real scenario, and explains why he does not believe in the possibility of a truce with Russia.
“First of all, it should be noted that these are anonymous sources. I am always skeptical of such sources. If the source is not named, it should a priori raise doubts about the reliability of the information,” Kovalenko said, commenting on Bloomberg’s report on the possible deployment of European troops in Ukraine.
Even if such forces are sent, it is unclear what exactly they will do.
“Under what auspices will this happen? Perhaps it is the UN? But which UN peacekeeping missions have been successful over the past 40-50 years? None. On the contrary, the presence of peacekeepers often only prolonged the conflict or contributed to its new escalation,” the expert said.
Kovalenko reminded that Russia has repeatedly declared a truce – in particular, for Easter and May holidays – but this did not prevent it from continuing hostilities.
“russia has never observed a ceasefire. Since 2015, after the Minsk agreements, the fire has not stopped for a single day. So it is naive to believe that it will adhere to the terms of any new agreement,” the observer believes.
Pseudo-defense under the guise of NATO Article 5
The expert is also critical of the possibility that the Western military in Ukraine may find themselves under the conditional “protection of NATO”.
“NATO Article 5 is not an automatic war of retaliation. This is the beginning of consultations. It may take more than a day for some to decide who will provide weapons, who will provide logistics, and who will abstain. And this time will be enough for Russia to occupy not only Estonia, but also Latvia, Lithuania and part of Poland,” Kovalenko explains.
According to Kovalenko, the West has not shown itself to be a reliable and effective partner in providing Ukraine with supplies.
“Yes, there was help. But not excellent, not even good. It was just satisfactory. That’s why when I hear about security guarantees, I am critical of it,” he said.
The expert calls Donald Trump’s statements part of the political theater in which both Ukraine and Europe are forced to participate.
“It’s all a game. A diplomatic game. Because we are dealing with the president of the United States. And yes, we are forced to play this game, because otherwise we will not get anything – neither arms contracts nor support,” Kovalenko says.
Buffer or bastion: reassessing Ukraine’s role
Kovalenko acknowledges that Ukraine has historically been a buffer zone between Russia and Europe, but he does not consider this humiliating. On the contrary, he sees it as a geopolitical advantage.
“We are not just a shield for Europe. We have a chance to become one of the most powerful countries in the world. With the strongest, most technologically advanced, professional army. Without hyperbole, even without nuclear weapons, Ukraine can become one of the top 10 armies in the world,” the expert emphasizes.
Kovalenko reminded that since the Soviet era, Ukraine’s territory has been the key to logistics and defense infrastructure, and this remains the case today.
“Ukraine had the most extensive railroad network. This is no accident – it was Ukraine that was preparing to become the main arena in the war with NATO. And today we are again at the epicenter,” he notes.
Despite public statements about peace initiatives, diplomatic packages and guarantees, Oleksandr Kovalenko believes that the reality is much more complicated.
“Ukraine is playing proactively, trying to keep the initiative both politically and militarily. But it is dangerous to trust guarantees without a real commitment. Our partners can help, but we must rely on ourselves first and foremost,” the expert concludes.
Thus, despite diplomatic initiatives and symbolic gestures by European leaders, the reality of war leaves no room for self-deception. According to the expert, peacekeeping missions without a clearly defined mandate, announced guarantees without commitments do not provide Ukraine with a real shield.
Real security is not about political formulations, but about weapons, readiness to act and military self-sufficiency.
