Wartime business: who wins and survives in the Ukrainian fuel market
31 July 15:21
ANALYSIS
Ukrainian fuel traders are standing the test of the war, successfully neutralizing the fuel shortage but sometimes upsetting consumers with price surprises. At the same time, they are fighting for their place in the sun. Komersant found out what is happening in this market.
How many gas stations are there in Ukraine?
Approximately 6,000 is the number of operating gas stations most often cited by experts who monitor changes in the Ukrainian retail fuel market. They explain that it is difficult to give an exact figure, as quantitative changes in the market are constant, and the registers are closed due to wartime.
However, at the end of July, at the suggestion of Danylo Hetmantsev , Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Finance, Taxation and Customs Policy, a figure was posted online that gives an idea of the number of people in Ukraine who officially sell fuel. Since December last year, such traders have been required to pay an advance payment of income tax for each retail outlet. In June 2025, there were 5083 valid licenses, and for the first time since the beginning of the year, this number has increased. In May, there were 5058, and in January – 5646. It was reported that in 6 months of 2025, 499 licenses of 322 entities were revoked by the tax authorities for non-payment of advance payments. The licenses were revoked due to the closure of a gas station of one of the networks last fall, the shutdown of unprofitable network and individual gas stations that operated on illegal fuel, as well as the revocation of licenses in the occupied territories and in the war zones.
There have been other changes in the fuel market compared to last year. According to Oleksandr Sirenko, an analyst at NaftoRynok, the leader among the networks in terms of the number of filling stations has changed: Privat was the previous leader, and Ukrnafta has become the new one.
As of March of this year, according to the NaftoRynok consulting company, the top three looked like this: Ukrnafta had 556 gas stations across Ukraine, OKKO owned 412 gas stations, and WOG had 360 gas stations. Oleksandr Sirenko also had a reason to mention another network.
“There is such an indicator as fuel sales per filling station. And here it is worth mentioning another player that is in the TOP-10 and is still developing dynamically. It turns out that it is one of the most efficient in this category – UPG. They have the largest sales volume per filling station,”
– the expert states.
As reported by Forbes Ukraine, citing data from the A-95 consulting group, the fuel market is divided among the top 3 networks in approximately the following proportions: OKKO has a market share of 18.8%, WOG – 14%, Ukrnafta – 12.2%. In total, the 10 largest networks account for 67% of the retail fuel market.
Tetyana Dumenkova, deputy head of the Association of Fuel and Energy Business, which focuses on helping small and medium-sized companies, also points out such significant structural changes.
“Large networks are actively consolidating the market, absorbing or pushing out smaller players. Small and medium-sized owners of gas stations facing financing, logistics and fiscal pressure are often forced to sell their businesses or shut down operations. Instead, powerful players with financial resources and well-established logistics are expanding their presence. Also, many potential buyers are now interested in the gas stations of the former consolidated Privat group, which until recently had a significant influence on the market,”
– emphasizes Dumenkova.
What’s happening with Privat’s gas stations now?
Oleksandr Sirenko has a simple answer to this question:
“I have not seen them on the market since the beginning of this year. Neither in the retail nor in the wholesale segment. It seems to me that they have decided to either pause or withdraw, but not to work for sure.”
As a reminder, this network once included more than 1,500 gas stations operating under about 15 brands. Some of these stations were nationalized in 2022. The rest gradually stopped operating. And, as mentioned above, they became the object of attention of potential buyers.
In mid-July, it became known that the UPG network was preparing to launch 34 leased “private” gas stations that operated in Kyiv under the Avias and ANP brands. They are scheduled to be launched in mid-August. Oleksandr Sirenko continues.
“UPG is the one that is actively leasing Privat’s filling stations. So far, in Kyiv. And, as we have recently been informed by the head of the Antimonopoly Committee, there are two more applications for leasing gas stations in other regions. We don’t know exactly how many Privat filling stations they will be ready to take over. But there is a possibility that the top three may change. Why are they so active? They are efficient. They are among the top three, mostly in third place in terms of fuel imports, so they are a powerful wholesale player. As for Privat’s gas stations, they are now being leased a little bit, and some are buying something. Some buy in large quantities. Someone buys them locally, in different regions – one or two at a time,”
– explains the expert.
By the way, in an interview with NaftoRynok, Pavlo Kyrylenko, Chairman of the Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine, said that in addition to the 34 already approved applications for leasing gas stations belonging to the Privat group, the committee is considering 47 more applications, and then 46 more. And here we are talking about Privat-owned gas stations located in the southeastern, eastern and central regions. As the official explained, UPG’s strategy is to acquire assets in stages: first, lease, then purchase. In total, it is allegedly about more than 550 facilities.
How is the Ukrainian fuel market changing?
This market is currently at a crossroads: on the one hand, the strengthening of large networks, and on the other, the need to maintain competition, which is critical for consumers. This is how Serhiy Sapegin, Director of the Psychea Research and Technology Center, characterizes the current trends in the fuel market.
“The largest networks are not just holding their positions, they are actively increasing them, using their advantages: lower purchase prices, loyalty programs, and long-term partnerships. Having a powerful lobby in the form of their industry association, as well as through increased media activity, these networks, in my opinion, are implementing long-term plans to increase their market share. Instead, local players are facing a dilemma: closure, going into the shadows or a minimum margin for survival,”
– says the expert.
According to him, for consumers, this means, on the one hand, greater stability and quality of services from brands with resources and standards. On the other hand, it may mean less competition in remote regions, rising prices and the risk of a drop in the number of available outlets near home. Also, the arrival of large chains in the regions will be associated with rebranding of gas stations and changes in service standards, which will require additional investments. But in any case, the end consumer will pay for this banquet.
Tetyana Dumenkova, Deputy Chairman of the Association of Fuel and Energy Business, also points out that leading operators are actively increasing their shares, displacing small and medium-sized gas stations. According to her, if this trend does not change, large chains will further displace small ones.
“Without active support for small and medium-sized businesses from the state, for example, by limiting the growth of market concentration or creating special programs to support small players, the risk of the final displacement of many small gas stations in the fall of 2025 will increase significantly. This will lead to less competition, deterioration in the quality of services and potentially higher prices for end consumers,”
– she says.
According to the expert, it is better for Ukraine to have a fragmented market rather than its consolidation.
“A healthy competitive market with many players of different sizes stimulates innovation and improves the quality of services, provides price flexibility and prevents collusion, increases consumer choice, and makes the market resilient to external shocks. Monopolization, on the other hand, leads to a decrease in competition, which can lead to unreasonable price increases, deterioration in the quality of services and, ultimately, the creation of an oligopoly that will dictate market conditions,”
– states Dumenkova.
Instead, Oleksandr Sirenko believes that the Ukrainian fuel market will sooner or later come to the European model, where there will be a small number of operators, not as it is now, when there are more than a hundred of them.
“I have no questions for the monopolists, as long as we are not talking about prices for petroleum products. When I see that large chains are either rapidly raising prices together or not reducing them when there is an economic opportunity to do so – when wholesale prices have fallen, but you can’t see it at the gas stations – then questions arise, and I really miss these small players. There is not enough competition. For example, there are less than 3% of them on the Kyiv market. And during the war, various price paradoxes are very uncomfortable to observe,”
– the expert notes.
The last such situation arose in June, when oil prices rose due to the events around Iran, and the owners of Ukrainian gas stations adjusted their prices accordingly, and then, when wholesale prices fell, there were no changes at the gas stations. The Antimonopoly Committee did not respond with an investigation.
Instead, the most high-profile “price” case, which dates back to 2022, when there was a sharp increase in fuel prices at Ukrainian gas stations, is still being investigated by the Antimonopoly Committee. As you know, in December 2023, it opened a case regarding the similarity of prices at gas stations at the beginning of the full-scale invasion. Serhiy Sapegin, director of the Psycheia Scientific and Technical Center, also emphasizes the importance of completing the investigation of this case.
“The Antimonopoly Committee must provide its assessment of the reasons for the fuel shortage that occurred at that time, as well as establish whether there was collusion between the gas station operators. As it turned out later, two powerful players in the market had enough fuel at their depots to cover the rush demand and the resulting shortage, but they withheld the fuel. You can say that you are saving the country, but when you are supposedly saving it with one hand and at the same time reaching into its pocket with the other, it looks strange. I hope that the Antimonopoly Committee will finally put an end to this issue,”
– the expert emphasized.
How fuel sellers are fighting for customers
Big brands are strengthening their positions, while small networks are giving way or going out of business altogether. In other words, the competition in the market is not among equals, but between big and small. Sergiy Sapegin shared this observation.
“On the one hand, the consumer receives a more standardized and reliable service, but this comes at the expense of regional competition, which could provide lower prices and flexibility of services. Unfortunately, the state, through fiscal rules, plays along with the big players, instead of saving small businesses and maintaining healthy competition,”
– the expert states.
Just the day before, Mr. Hetmantsev spoke about how fuel traders pay taxes. It turns out that in the first six months of 2025, 48 gas station chains paid UAH 6.6 billion in taxes to the budget, which is UAH 1.4 billion or 26.9% more than in the same period in 2024.
The Association of Fuel and Energy Business, referring to the recent innovation with the payment of advance income tax payments, draws attention to another figure. Says Tetiana Dumenkova, Deputy Head of the Association:
“According to our data, 20% of small and medium-sized businesses have abandoned legal business and are using “gray” schemes since the introduction of advance payments of income tax. This, in turn, undermines budget revenues, creates unfair competition and puts honest businesses at a disadvantage.”
According to her, increasing fiscal pressure on legal small and medium-sized businesses, in particular through the introduction of advance payments from profits and requirements for the formation of strategic reserves, can only strengthen the trend towards shadowing.
“It is usually easier for large players to adapt to new regulatory requirements and tax burden, while for small entrepreneurs it becomes an unbearable burden, pushing them into the shadows or forcing them to stop their activities,”
– emphasizes Tetiana Dumenkova.
Small businesses in the Ukrainian fuel market are indeed not to be envied. The rules of the game are changing, and some of them are starting to think about how to leave the market. According to Oleksandr Sirenko, there are three ways to do this. First, to sell the business. Second, to revoke the license and stop working. The third option is to revoke the license and go into the shadows, i.e. trade without paying any taxes at all.
“The market should be the market – it’s right. But then everyone should have equal access to opportunities and resources. We have come to the point where big players are writing laws and lobbying for them to be adopted for themselves. This is definitely unfair competition,”
– the expert states.
Although, I must admit, there is still a large field for quite fair competition. However, with different opportunities. According to Oleksandr Sirenko, there is one problem that will affect gas stations in both 2024 and 2025: a decrease in sales.
“There are figures from the State Tax Service, and there was a year-on-year decline of about 5-7%. But what operators tell us is that the figures are slightly higher – up to 15%. There are fewer buyers, and this is noticeable in retail. And if someone did not pay attention to additional services, communication with customers, then natural selection will be demonstrative, as per Darwin, competitive. Those who have not been engaged in development will probably leave. To win back the consumer, we need to make fuel prices affordable, provide affordable and attractive expected services, and expand the range of goods in stores at gas stations. These are all areas that need to be addressed very seriously. Buying and selling, changing only the numbers on the ceiling, without developing anything, is not intellectual work anymore,”
– the expert states.
Should we expect any surprises in the fuel market
Dependence on imports and possible logistical disruptions due to the same delays at the borders may create some local fuel shortages, especially in remote areas. The situation could be complicated by Russian attacks on infrastructure or other emergencies. But thanks to the reorientation of logistics and an increase in the number of importers, there will definitely not be a large-scale fuel shortage like the one in the spring of 2022. The Ukrainian fuel market has already adapted and found opportunities to build routes and be able to deliver fuel to consumers in a timely manner. This is the general conclusion of the experts we spoke to .
According to the experts, prices at gas stations may increase, but they may also decrease. If, of course, the laws of a civilized market work, and not price collusion. And the Antimonopoly Committee will not wait for official statements and appeals to start an investigation. Especially since it has the authority to initiate the investigation itself. And, as Pavlo Kyrylenko, the head of the Antimonopoly Committee, assured in the aforementioned recent interview, he will not allow the committee to just sit and wait.
Sergiy Vasilevich
