Blackout in Russia: what exactly needs to be disabled to de-energize the aggressor country
4 November 16:02
ANALYSIS FROM 
Russians may boast of a powerful energy system, but it is a facade. Inside are holes that are becoming increasingly difficult to patch. After the recent drone strikes in Volgograd and Kursk, these weaknesses are becoming more and more apparent. How many strikes will it take to extinguish half of Russia? Can Russia plunge into darkness?
A large-scale blackout in Russia is only possible if there are systemic attacks on its energy infrastructure. This was stated in an interview by energy expert Serhiy Dyachenko, commenting on the current state of the Russian energy system and its vulnerability.
However, the Russian Federation has weaknesses and is already facing problems with the restoration of energy facilities after attacks. The reason is a shortage of equipment and dependence on imports, primarily from China.
In Ukraine, we have managed to repair substations and replace transformers. But the situation in Russia is different. They have virtually no transformer production facilities of their own. China helps them, but it costs a lot of money. And the further it goes, the harder it is to finance it,” explained Dyachenko.
According to him, even temporary power outages in strategic areas of Russia pose serious risks to the military industry.
“When there is a power outage in certain areas, especially in the Moscow region, where a large number of defense plants are concentrated, it is a serious blow. Without electricity, these enterprises simply stop working. This is a huge plus for us and a big problem for them,” he said.
How to knock out at least half of the Russian power system?
Russia has a large amount of backup capacity, which makes it difficult to organize a full-scale blackout.
It is very difficult to organize a blackout in Russia. They have a very large reserve of capacity, so it cannot be solved in one fell swoop. We remember that they managed to blackout us only once, and it was for two days. In Russia, the system is more complicated. They can organize blackouts only in certain areas, locally,” explained Dyachenko.
The expert emphasized that to achieve a systemic effect, a series of attacks on key energy hubs is needed.
“It is very difficult to create a powerful effect on at least half of Russia’s territory. This is only possible if you constantly hit the energy sector, consistently, to destroy the infrastructure. You can’t do it in one blow,” Dyachenko emphasized.
Summing up, Dyachenko noted that a large-scale blackout in Russia is possible only in the event of a long and targeted campaign to destroy critical facilities.
To organize a large-scale blackout in Russia, you have to try very hard. This is not a one-off story – it is a process. But it is quite possible. They have weaknesses, and the longer the pressure on the energy sector lasts, the deeper their capabilities are destroyed. It just takes time and consistency,” the expert summarized.
Blackouts on Russia
On the night of Tuesday, November 4, Russia suffered another massive drone attack. According to local officials and Russian Telegram channels, unidentified drones attacked energy facilities in Volgograd and Kursk regions, causing a fire at the Frolovskaya substation and massive power outages.
At the same time, State Duma deputy Alexander Khinstein said that a substation in the city of Rylsk, Kursk region, had been damaged by four drones, leaving more than 16,000 consumers in three districts of the region without power.
“On the night of November 3 to 4, the Russian Defense Ministry’s air defense units repelled a massive attack by unmanned aerial vehicles on the territory of the Volgograd region,” Bocharov wrote.
Magyar issued a warning
Unmanned Systems Commander Robert “Magyar” Brovdi commented on the situation, addressing the Russians
Get used to it, but all over the swampy territory. The flight of a free bird is unpredictable and not scheduled,” he emphasized.
Brovdi advised Russian residents to stock up on matches, candles and battery-powered garlands, as attacks on enemy energy facilities will continue:
“We will not inform you about every 750 kV or 500 kV pecked by the Birds. Your public intelligence is still working flawlessly – as long as there is the Internet, – Robert Brovdi
The current incidents confirm that local blackouts in the regions of the Russian Federation are a reality, but a large-scale, systemic collapse of the power system is possible only if there is prolonged and coordinated pressure on key nodes. Russia’s main vulnerability today is its technological dependence (especially transformer equipment) and limited ability to recover quickly. This means that strategic pressure on the energy sector can have a long-term effect, but it requires time, resources, and consistency.
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