Bookmakers accept bets on whether Trump will end the war in 90 days
17 January 2025 09:54
The chances that US President-elect Donald Trump will end the war in Ukraine within the first 90 days of his presidency are 34%. Such data was published by the Polymarket platform, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
It is noteworthy that two months ago, bookmakers estimated the probability of ending the war in Ukraine within three months after the start of Trump’s term at almost 50%.
On January 1, analysts predicted this scenario with a 40% probability.
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Trump’s position on Ukraine
During the election campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly said that he would stop the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office. Sometimes he suggested that it could happen even before that.
Also during the election, the media spread the so-called “Trump Plan”. The idea was that the United States would use its influence to stop the war and maintain the status quo. To do this, Trump would force Putin and Zelenskyy to sit down at the negotiating table. If Putin does not agree to negotiate, the United States will give Ukraine all the weapons it needs to win on the battlefield. If Zelenskyy refuses to negotiate, the United States will completely stop helping Ukraine.
This plan, in its various variations, stipulates that Russia retains the territories it temporarily occupies and that Ukraine does not join NATO.
However, later Trump seemed to “forget” about this plan. In particular, he voiced scenarios in which he would force Russia to capitulate due to the decline in world oil prices.
After Trump was elected President of the United States, one of his advisors, Brian Lanza, said that Ukraine should forget about Crimea. The president-elect’s entourage, however, was quick to deny this statement and said that Lanza could not speak for Trump.
Currently, the future US Special Representative for Russia and Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, is talking about 100 days in which he wants to reach some kind of agreement.
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