Why Ukraine’s imports once again exceeded exports by more than twice
10 February 21:33
Ukraine’s January foreign trade data show a familiar but telling imbalance: imports are more than twice as high as exports. In the first month of 2026, goods worth $6.7 billion were imported into the country, while exports amounted to only $3.2 billion. This means a negative balance of about $3.5 billion — a trend that continues amid the war and structural restructuring of the economy. This was reported by the State Customs Service, according to "Komersant Ukrainian".
Imports: equipment, fuel, and budget revenues
Goods without which the economy and infrastructure cannot function play a key role in the structure of imports. Almost 70% of all imported goods fall into three categories: machinery and transport, fuel and energy resources, and chemical industry products.
The share of energy imports is particularly significant, amounting to $1.1 billion in just one month. Fuel provided the largest budget revenues: 43% of all customs payments. This reflects Ukraine’s dependence on energy imports during the winter, especially given the damaged energy infrastructure.
At the same time, imports of machinery and equipment ($2.7 billion) may indicate not only consumption but also an investment component — the restoration, repair, and maintenance of critical industries.
Border taxes: a stable source of revenue
Taxed imports in January amounted to $4.4 billion, or two-thirds of the total volume. The tax burden — 50 cents per kilogram — remains relatively stable and indicates the significant role of customs in filling the budget. In fact, customs payments continue to be one of the most predictable sources of state revenue in a war economy.
Trade geography: focus on the EU and Turkey
China remains Ukraine’s largest trading partner in terms of imports, while exports are increasingly concentrated on European Union countries. Poland is among the top three importers and exporters for Ukraine, underscoring its role as a key trade and logistics hub.
Turkey remains an important partner on both sides of trade, and Italy remains one of the main markets for Ukrainian goods.
Exports: food as the mainstay
Despite all the challenges, food products remain the basis of Ukrainian exports, accounting for $2 billion in January, or almost two-thirds of total exports. This confirms that the agricultural sector remains the main source of foreign exchange earnings.
At the same time, exports of metals and machinery are still significantly below pre-war levels, reflecting constraints on industrial production and logistics.
The January figures show an economy operating in survival mode and supporting basic needs: energy, technology, and food. High imports and relatively weak exports mean continued dependence on external financing, both through aid from partners and through loans.
