Why are there fewer remittances when there are more Ukrainians abroad? The paradox of 2025
28 January 19:09
The situation with remittances from abroad continues to deteriorate. Here are the key figures for November 2025 and the overall picture for the first 11 months. Ukrainians abroad have significantly reduced the amount of money they send home, especially their labor income. Komersant examined how serious this problem is for Ukraine.
According to the NBU, in November 2025, the volume of private money transfers decreased by 8.9% and amounted to $0.6 billion. Salaries received by Ukrainians from abroad fell by 29.0%, while other private transfers, such as assistance to relatives remaining in Ukraine, received through official channels, increased by 9.9%. Overall, inflows through official channels decreased by 7.7%, while inflows through informal channels decreased by 10.7% compared to November last year.
In total, from January to November 2025, remittances decreased by 15.5% and amounted to US$7.3 billion. This is one of the worst indicators in recent years of war.
According to the NBU, the largest amounts of money last year came from: Poland – $3.292 billion, the US – $1.133 billion, the UK – $833 million, the Czech Republic – $704 million, Germany – $628 million, Israel – $453 million, Italy – $172 million, Ireland – $172 million, the Netherlands – $116 million, Greece – $106 million, and the UAE – $86 million.
From 2018 to 2020, remittances to Ukraine from abroad ranged from $11.1 billion to $11.9 billion.
In 2021, the volume of remittances to Ukraine increased again, reaching $14.019 billion.
But 2022 was a record year for remittances, with $12.543 billion transferred to Ukraine.
In 2023, it was $11.292 billion, and in 2024, it was $9.464 billion. Last year looks like the worst, with only about $8 billion sent to Ukraine from abroad.
Those who left no longer help those who stayed
Cash inflows from labor migrants have been declining, are declining, and will continue to decline. This is due to the fact that labor migration in Ukraine has disappeared, and more than 65-70% of those who went to work abroad before the start of hostilities were men who are now prohibited from leaving the country, emphasizes in a comment
“We cannot say that labor migration has remained at the same level as before. Women, children, and men who have the opportunity to do so are leaving the country, which reduces the need to transfer money directly to Ukraine, as the people to whom it was previously transferred are disappearing. In addition, women and children are joining the men who left before the war and worked abroad, and thus the inflow of funds into the country is falling,” notes Vasyl Voskoboynik.
The situation will not change until the end of the hostilities, but as soon as martial law ends and the borders are opened, there will be another wave of labor migration and family reunification.
“We hope that families will reunite in Ukraine, although the opposite may happen. And, in an optimistic scenario, remittances from labor migrants abroad will increase slightly. But if families reunite abroad, then the number of people to whom money is transferred will decrease,” the expert emphasizes.
Little money, many problems
Economic analysts note several other factors that directly affected remittances to Ukraine. In 2022, there was indeed a sharp increase in cash inflows into the country from abroad, with the volume growing to ~$13–14 billion, but this was emergency humanitarian aid from the diaspora and volunteers for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, for refugees, and for the restoration of destroyed infrastructure, rather than traditional labor remittances. However, the aid quickly came to nothing. And today, the flow of money from abroad has changed dramatically.
First, the situation on the European labor market has deteriorated: high inflation and economic slowdown. Migrants have less disposable income to send home.
“After all, many of those who left at the beginning of the war have already settled in a new place and are spending money on living there, rather than on remittances to Ukraine. But Ukrainians abroad have also started to earn less and, accordingly, send less money home. Their incomes fell by 27.9% ($3.1 billion) over the year,” he notes in a comment
financial analyst Ivan Sklyar. [Komersant]
Secondly, the relocation of IT specialists abroad. Due to the risk of power and internet outages in Ukraine, as well as mobilization, foreign customers are demanding that contractors move to a more stable country to guarantee the completion of projects.
“As a result, the wages of Ukrainian IT specialists are no longer considered transfers to Ukraine, which reduces the total volume,” the financial analyst believes.
However, the lack of heat, electricity, and other difficulties that Ukrainians have recently faced are pushing citizens to leave the country, experts note.
According to the Center for Economic Strategy (CES), the number of Ukrainians who left Ukraine in 2025 exceeded the number of those who returned by 303,000 people — 34% less than in 2024, when this figure was 459,000. But this winter could change everything, as more than half a million people have already left Kyiv, according to the city’s mayor.
Author: Alla Dunina
