Why electricity prices in Ukraine may be adjusted again — details
8 April 18:03
The National Commission for State Regulation of Energy and Public Utilities (NEURC) has initiated a procedure to review the cap prices for electricity. "Komersant Ukrainian" investigated why, just a few days after the cap prices were lowered, it was decided to revisit this issue and what such a decision means.
The return a few days ago to the electricity price caps for businesses that were in effect until January 17 of this year was met with little enthusiasm by market players, particularly those who generate or import electricity.
This is understandable: lower prices mean lower revenues, and for small-scale generators, following the cancellation of preferential natural gas prices, there is also the real prospect of suspending electricity production. And this is not the only factor that has influenced and continues to influence the market.
A Regulated Market
In March, there were quite a few days when Ukrenergo reassured Ukrainians with the message: “No blackouts are expected.” The only exceptions were power restrictions for industrial consumers and rapid responses with blackouts to mitigate the effects of hostile attacks. But the announcement on April 3 of hourly blackout schedules for all consumer categories was reason enough for many energy market experts to link these blackouts specifically to the reduction of electricity price caps and the decrease in imports. Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Center for Energy Research, shares this view .
“If you look at the import figures, it’s clear what’s causing the electricity shortage. There is hope that at least a normal level of those administrative restrictions will return—restrictions that are essentially leaving Ukrainians without electricity even in situations where there are no enemy attacks. Because electricity prices are currently at a level that does not allow for normal imports or the normal operation of gas-fired power generation,” the expert notes.
Meanwhile, the NEURC refutes the assumption that price caps are causing the electricity shortage. As evidence that current price caps are not the cause of the electricity shortage, the commission cited the following data:
“During the first six days of April, they were reached in only 6% of billing periods, and on April 4–6, they were not reached at all.”
Furthermore, according to the regulator, electricity imports are gradually recovering and, as of April 6, stood at about 87% of the level recorded on March 31.
NEURC Chairman Yuriy Vlasenko identified several objective factors that, in his assessment, are affecting the market.
“These include, in particular, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine’s cancellation of the gas PSO effective April 1, 2026, which led to an increase in production costs and a partial suspension of generation; the premature cancellation by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine of the decision requiring business entities to import electricity to meet their own needs, as well as repair campaigns and the restoration of damaged infrastructure.”
The NEURC noted that following the extremely challenging fall-winter period of 2025–2026, energy companies are conducting intensive work on equipment restoration and maintenance. At the same time, part of the generating capacity has been taken offline for unscheduled repairs, which worsens the electricity balance structure.
But this is not the only factor complicating the situation on the electricity market. Alexander Kharchenko, Director of the Energy Research Center, assesses it as follows:
“The situation on the electricity market was catastrophic, remains catastrophic, and will continue to be catastrophic. Because our electricity market isn’t functioning normally. Our balancing market is completely blocked. And cross-debts have already exceeded, it seems, 110 billion. And no one is planning to do anything. The market situation would be normal if the administrative restrictions—which, according to our obligations, are supposed to be completely lifted in the spring of 2027—were abolished right now. We’re talking about the abolition of price caps altogether. You have only two alternatives: either market prices or no electricity. And now, at the very least, we need to return to the levels that were in effect from mid-January through March 31,” the expert believes.
A non-procedural issue
In fact, the difficult situation that has developed in the market, as well as the rather critical reaction of its participants, have become a formal pretext for the regulator to initiate the procedure for revising electricity price caps. In other words, the regulator intends to monitor the market situation and analyze proposals from market participants. They have already received invitations to join the discussion of the draft decision so that, as the commission emphasized, balanced approaches can be developed in the interests of the state, consumers, and electricity producers. Volodymyr Omelchenko, director of energy programs at the Razumkov Center, continues .
“This is a standard procedure applied to all decisions made by the regulator. Personally, I believe it is time to review these price caps so as not to restrict imports. This needs to be done now. On the other hand, I am inclined to believe that only under significant pressure will they agree to adjust these price caps to a level that does not hinder the market’s functioning,” the expert notes.
I’ve heard the opinion that the current price caps could be revised in 3–4 months. What exactly could be the argument in favor of such a decision? A question for Daria Orlova, an electricity market analyst at ExPro.
“We’re most likely talking about July and August here, and during these months, electricity consumption typically rises due to increased use of air conditioners. Available capacity may also be reduced, as these months mark the peak of Energoatom’s maintenance campaign. Consequently, there will be a need for additional electricity imports and for additional capacity from small-scale gas-fired generation. Therefore, it is likely that price caps may rise again during this period. And this would be the right decision on the part of the regulator,” the expert emphasizes.
As for the recently adjusted electricity price caps for businesses, there have been few changes.
Specifically, while from January 17 to March 31, the maximum price cap of 15,000 UAH/MWh applied to the entire day on the “day-ahead” and intraday markets, this price now applies only from 5:00 PM to 11:00 PM.
During the time periods from 12:00 a.m. to 7:00 a.m. and from 11:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m., the maximum price cap is 5,600 UAH/MWh, and from 7:00 a.m. to 11:00 a.m. and from 11:00 p.m. to midnight—6,900 UAH/MWh.
Author: Serhiy Vasylovych
