Is Ukraine facing a diesel shortage? An expert explains
24 March 13:12
ANALYSIS FROM 
Reports of a potential diesel fuel shortage in Ukraine require careful consideration and verification, as the energy market remains dynamic and is influenced by many factors. This was stated by energy expert Mykhailo Gonchar, commenting on "Komersant Ukrainian" recent media reports.
It should be noted that Reuters reported that Ukraine has enough diesel fuel to last until the end of March, while supplies in April are in question.
According to Gonchar, not all news about the situation on the fuel market corresponds to reality.
“Well, I don’t have that kind of information. And we need to be very cautious about the emergence of such conflicting reports… when Reuters reported that a diesel fuel shortage was expected in Ukraine, which is absolutely not true. And that was refuted,” Gonchar emphasized.
The expert emphasizes that the market situation changes daily and depends on negotiations with suppliers and logistical capabilities.
“The situation is dynamic… yesterday, perhaps, someone couldn’t reach an agreement… But today they will reach an agreement… someone is trying to show a photo. Just a photo. Yesterday it may have been that way. But today or tomorrow it will be different,” he explained.
If we disregard questionable information, there is no reason to panic. According to Gonchar’s assessment, there are currently no signs of a diesel fuel shortage on the European market. Supplies from the U.S., which have already become commonplace in Europe, also play an important role.
“I don’t see any prospect of a diesel shortage on the European market. Especially since American diesel has been well-established for several years now… for American oil companies, this is a golden age,” the expert noted.
Despite this, the issue of prices remains open. They are influenced by both global events, particularly the situation in the Persian Gulf, and speculative factors.
“It’s convenient to blame everything on events in the Persian Gulf… but we understand that there is a speculative component to this price,” he emphasized.
Gonchar also notes that seasonal factors may curb a sharp rise in diesel prices. During the summer vacation period, demand for gasoline traditionally grows more than for diesel fuel. At the same time, the market remains global, and Ukraine has the opportunity to diversify its supplies.
“The world does not hinge solely on European producers,” the expert noted, adding that fuel can be imported from various regions; the only issue is cost.
Separately, he drew attention to the role of the media and traders in shaping the information landscape.
“Often, this is spread by business publications that reflect the interests of traders… the more you stoke the flames… the more a picture of heightened risks is supposedly formed, and, accordingly, prices need to be raised,” explained Gonchar.
Thus, despite isolated alarming signals in the media, there are currently no grounds for predicting a diesel fuel shortage in Ukraine. At the same time, Ukrainians should be prepared for gradual price changes, which will be determined by the balance of supply and demand in the global market.
