Will F-16s change the course of the war? Opinion of a military analyst

Delivery times and pilot training

The expert noted that, judging by numerous reports from alleged eyewitnesses, F-16s may already be in Ukraine. However, he warns against jumping to conclusions:

“There is information – it is quite possible that they are already in Ukraine. Some people write in the media that they have seen them flying with their own eyes. This may be a mistake, but many people are talking about it.”

The hetman also strongly denied talk of slow training of Ukrainian pilots. According to him, Ukrainian pilots are experienced professionals who can quickly learn new techniques. He cites the opinion of an American ace.

“Once upon a time, one of the American pilots, an ace of sorts, when asked how long it takes a professional pilot to switch from one fighter jet to another, said it takes 100 hours at most. So the stories that our pilots can’t prepare to fly an F-16 for a year and a half or can’t learn English are not true,” says Hetman,

– says Hetman.

The impact of the F-16 on the course of the war

At the same time, the expert warns against excessive optimism about the impact of the F-16 on the course of the war. Especially when it comes to the number of aircraft that we are promised. He explains that a small number of aircraft cannot radically change the situation.

“There will be no breakthrough, we shouldn’t get enchanted so that we don’t get disappointed later, because it doesn’t happen: 12 or 20 aircraft cannot change the course of the war. This is an aircraft that can also be shot down, that can come under SAM fire, that can be destroyed by a Russian aircraft,” he said,

– he stressed.

The hetman also reminds of the restrictions on the use of F-16s, including the ban on approaching the front line closer than 40 km.

Possible escalation of the situation in August

Hetman is sceptical about a possible Russian counter-offensive. In his opinion, the Russians have already used up almost all available resources on the front line. However, he warns of a possible increase in pressure in certain areas:

“As long as the weather conditions are favourable for offensive actions, they will increase the pressure as much as possible. And most likely, it will be Pokrovske, Toretske and Chasiv Yariv directions, as President Zelensky said that the most fierce fighting is taking place there and the situation is difficult and even critical,”

– says the military expert.

Forecasts for the future

Citing analysts, including the Institute for War Studies, Hetman predicts a gradual decrease in the intensity of hostilities by the end of the summer. He explains this by the exhaustion of the Russian army:

“At least because the Russian army is running out of breath. And any army in the world cannot carry out massive offensive actions for a long time, it is simply impossible even theoretically.”

Thus, the expert paints a complex picture of a situation where expectations of the F-16 should be realistic and forecasts of further hostilities should be cautious.