Devaluation of the hryvnia: Getmantsev explains why the dollar exchange rate is rising
6 March 02:57
The rise in the dollar against the hryvnia is predictable and partly seasonal. Additional pressure on the currency market is created by the economic consequences of the war, the foreign trade deficit, and global instability in financial markets. This was stated by the head of the parliamentary committee on finance, tax, and customs policy, Danylo Getmantsev, according to "Komersant Ukrainian".
Why is the dollar rising?
According to Getmantsev, the current currency fluctuations are not unique to Ukraine. The dollar is also strengthening against other world currencies.
This applies, in particular, to currencies such as:
- the euro
- the Japanese yen
- Swiss franc
This is because during periods of global instability, investors often switch to the dollar, which is traditionally considered a “safe haven” for capital.
Seasonal factor of devaluation
Hetmantsev emphasized that the rise in the dollar exchange rate at the end of the year and the beginning of the new one is a common phenomenon for the Ukrainian economy.
The main reasons are:
- an increase in imports
- an expansion of the foreign trade deficit
- increased demand for currency from businesses.
During this period, companies actively purchase energy resources, goods, and equipment abroad, which increases demand for foreign currency.
Impact of events in the Middle East
An additional factor was the escalation of the situation in the Middle East, which increased global risks in financial markets.
Against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions, investors are more likely to buy the dollar, which leads to its strengthening on global currency markets.
What the National Bank says
The National Bank of Ukraine does not see any critical risks to currency stability.
According to Getmantsev, the regulator has a professional team that monitors the situation on the currency market.
In addition, the National Bank continues its policy aimed at:
- control inflation
- stabilizing the financial sector
- supporting macroeconomic balance.
Dollar exchange rate forecast
The government’s budget declaration already takes into account the risk of hryvnia devaluation.
According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine, the average dollar exchange rate in 2026 may be around 44.7 UAH per dollar.
At the same time, Getmantsev stressed that there are currently no grounds for panic statements regarding the hryvnia exchange rate.
“There is currently no reason for sensational headlines about the national currency exchange rate,” he stressed.
