Is Russia really on the verge of a fuel crisis: an analysis?
26 August 2025 12:56
ANALYSIS
During August, Ukrainian drones conducted a number of pinpoint strikes on strategically important Russian oil refineries and elements of the fuel system. As a result of these attacks, some refineries suspended operations, large fires broke out, and oil deliveries through the Druzhba pipeline were temporarily interrupted. The blows were so tangible for Russia, that against this background in several regions of the country have already introduced restrictions on gasoline sales: fuel is issued on coupons for businesses, and the price of AI-95 has skyrocketed.
"Komersant Ukrainian" turned to domestic experts to find out whether this situation can turn into a full-fledged fuel crisis in Russia.
There is a crisis, there is no crisis
Mikhail Gonchar, an expert on energy issues, exclusively for the
“Their recovery reserve is quite limited, as Belarus has also imposed restrictions on gasoline exports. Probably, the shutdown of Druzhba left only a technological reserve for the two Belarusian refineries in Mozyr and Novopolotsk.”
– explains Gonchar.
However, energy expert Gennady Ryabtsev disagrees with him. He believes that there’s no reason to talk about a fuel crisis in Russia. Everything in Russia is not without problems in this area, but the crisis, according to the expert, is still far away.
“Frankly speaking, there are no grounds to talk about the fuel crisis in rf. There are grounds to say that the state regulation in Russia does not allow efficient distribution of goods produced on its territory,” Ryabtsev commented,
– ryabtsev commented exclusively for
According to the expert, the volume of petroleum products produced in Russia is sufficient to meet demand, but the imperfect tax system and administrative interference in the market lead to shortages in some regions. He specified that fuel shortages are mainly observed in Primorsky Krai, Transbaikalia, the Kuril Islands and Kamchatka, where supply depends on the Khabarovsk and Komsomolsk refineries.
“The problem there is that almost all oil from there has gone to China for export. And the refineries simply cannot meet the demand, which, of course, with shortages acquires signs of agitation,”
– he explained.
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Logistics is the key link
Speaking about the European part of the Russian Federation, Ryabtsev noted that logistics are starting to fail there, and the refinery strikes are really affecting the situation.
“If you look at the capacity of these refineries that were damaged, it’s about 17% of total oil refining,” the
– said the expert.
However, he emphasizes that this does not mean that 17% of capacity has been taken out of service, but only a temporary reduction in production or shipments. According to the expert’s assessment, these losses could be compensated if logistics is efficient and there is no government interference in the market.
Ryabtsev also touched upon the logistics problems caused by military cargoes:
“Logistics is also imperfect due to the fact that it is loaded with military cargoes. Several sorting hubs were also damaged as a result of Ukrainian attacks. For example, queues of trucks lacking diesel fuel have formed along the Don federal highway.”
The expert still notes that this situation is not a fuel crisis because
“fuel crisis is when there is no fuel, but production now allows to provide all consumers of Russia with oil products under normal conditions”.
Mikhail Gonchar adds that Russia, in extreme cases, may even attract international aid, although it will be quite expensive and not very effective.
“Unless the Indians will send back gasoline made from Russian oil to help Russia. The Chinese… But that’s a long logistics, a long shoulder. And it’s not something that can be provided promptly.”
He added that Belarus could provide emergency assistance as a neighbor, but its own constraints make that unlikely.
Prospects for September: recovery or crisis?
Mikhail Gonchar believes that without a pause in the Ukrainian attacks, the situation could reach a critical point:
“If there is a pause, they will resume during September. Therefore, the main thing is not to stop our Defense Forces. Then – yes, it will reach a certain critical point”.
Gennady Ryabtsev, on the contrary, emphasizes that the crisis can be avoided if state interference is eliminated and logistics are normalized.
“If there is not this government interference in the market, if logistics work normally.”
russia will cope with the consequences of the Ukrainian attacks on the fuel infrastructure, he is convinced. The expert is convinced that the current problems with fuel in Russia are more the result of administrative errors than a direct shortage of resources.
In general, experts agree that the continuation of the Ukrainian strikes may increase the pressure on the Russian fuel system, but the key factors will remain the efficiency of recovery, external assistance and internal regulation.
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