The dollar has fallen to 41 hryvnia: what economists say and whether to buy the currency
17 September 17:19
The dollar exchange rate in Ukraine on the cash market has dropped to 41.0-41.3 UAH/$. This has sparked a discussion among economists and ordinary citizens about whether to buy foreign currency now or whether it is better to choose other tools to preserve savings, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
Experts’ position
Oleg Hetman, economist:
- He does not expect further depreciation, as Ukraine has a significant trade deficit, which is covered by grants and external revenues.
- Currency, he said, is not the best way to store or increase savings.
- Alternatives: military bonds with a yield of 16-17% per annum without taxes or hryvnia deposits at 13-14% per annum.
Andriy Novak, economist:
- The current strengthening of the hryvnia creates an “attractive moment” for buying the dollar, although it is difficult to predict the further movement of the exchange rate.
- He advises to invest small amounts in the currency, but not to go all-in on the dollar.
- He explains that fluctuations in the currency market are daily and typical, and they are currently of small amplitude.
What’s happening on the currency market
- The hryvnia exchange rate is strengthening gradually, with fluctuations remaining insignificant from day to day.
- The main factor of stability is the NBU’s constant interventions and external financial support, which covers the imbalance in trade.
- For citizens, this creates a dilemma: whether to fix their hryvnia income through deposits or bonds, or to keep a “safety cushion” in foreign currency.
Why it matters
The stability of the hryvnia directly depends on international assistance. The duration of the war and possible changes in external financing flows can dramatically affect the exchange rate. Therefore, despite the current decline in the dollar, economists advise a balanced approach to investment decisions.
After the full-scale invasion, the NBU imposed strict currency restrictions and kept the exchange rate at UAH 36.6/$ for a long time. It was only in 2023 that the regulator gradually moved to managed flexibility. Since then, the hryvnia has strengthened, and the cash market has stabilized in the range of 40-41 UAH/$.
