Dollar at 50: the NBU told what exchange rate Ukrainians should really prepare for
30 October 2025 19:41
The exchange rate of 50 hryvnias to the dollar will not happen, as Ukraine has achieved currency stability and the inflation rate is decreasing.
This was stated in an interview on the YouTube channel [Kommersant]vasyl Furman, Doctor of Economics and member of the NBU Supervisory Board, said in an interview on YouTube.
Currency restrictions play an important role in our current macroeconomic situation. According to the interlocutor, despite the challenges associated with the great war, we are witnessing the stability of the banking system and moderate inflation. At the same time, the situation was much worse in 2014-2016.
“Back then, we had inflation of 60%, about 100 banks were withdrawn from the market, there were problems with saving funds of individuals and legal entities, and the hryvnia exchange rate devalued three times. Today, there is devaluation compared to the beginning of 2022, but not by three or even two times. Speaking about the hryvnia exchange rate, the National Bank does not make forecasts, as we pursue a policy of managed flexibility, and the exchange rate fluctuates due to the market. But if you look at the forecasts set out by the government in its budget declaration for several years, as well as the IMF’s forecasts, they differ slightly from the values we have today,” Mr. Furman emphasized.
“There will be currency fluctuations, but within the range of 5-7%, maybe a little more, and this is normal, especially for a country at war. No matter how difficult it is, the situation will remain under control. However, according to the economist, no one can say for sure what the exchange rate will be by the end of the year.
“The UAH 50 per dollar exchange rate is a very pessimistic forecast. I believe that the situation on the currency market will continue to be the same as it is now – stable and controlled. No one knows whether the exchange rate will be 45 or 42 – before the war, there was a floating exchange rate, now there is managed flexibility, this model does not imply a rigid fixation of the exchange rate. After all, there is a market and many factors that can influence the exchange rate policy,” Vasyl Furman said.
This year, Ukraine is receiving record-breaking amounts of foreign economic assistance – by the end of the year, the NBU’s international reserves will reach USD 54 billion. Before the Great War, they amounted to USD 28 billion, which is evidence of stability.
As a reminder, after the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, the National Bank of Ukraine fixed the official hryvnia exchange rate to curb market panic. In 2023, it switched to a “managed flexibility” regime, which allows the currency to respond to market factors, but under the control of the regulator.
In August 2025, the hryvnia exchange rate on the interbank market hovered around UAH 41-42 per dollar, while in the shadows it reached UAH 43-44.
After significant foreign exchange earnings from partners, increased exports, and stable international reserves of more than $50 billion, the hryvnia has refrained from sharp fluctuations.
The day before, the Ministry of Finance had set an average annual exchange rate of UAH 42.9 per dollar in its draft budget for 2026, while the IMF forecasts a similar level of UAH 43-44.
It is against this background that the NBU reassures Ukrainians that the scenario of a UAH 50 per dollar exchange rate is not currently being considered.
