“Two dolls instead of thirty”: Trump has already ruined Christmas for Americans
15 May 2025 15:21
The tariff war launched by U.S. President Donald Trump will definitely affect the state of U.S. retailers during Christmas, even if they start to remedy the situation today. This is stated in the Bloomberg article “Trump has already ruined Christmas”, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
Global chains are broken
In April 2025, President Trump’s administration introduced a powerful wave of tariffs that amount to 145% on most Chinese goods and at least 10% on imports from other countries. Although the tariffs on Chinese goods have recently been temporarily reduced to 30% for 90 days, experts say that the negative consequences for the consumer market are already irreversible. Even if the tariffs are canceled today, it will take at least six months to return to normal.
Global supply chains have already suffered significant disruptions. According to the Port of Los Angeles (the largest container port in the United States), most American retailers have only 5-7 weeks of stocks of goods purchased before the tariffs were imposed. The shortage of seasonal goods traditionally imported from China, such as toys, electronics, cosmetics and other popular Christmas gifts, will be particularly acute.
Statistics are already showing alarming signs, the article says: the volume of empty container traffic between Asia and North America increased sixfold in three weeks in late April and early May. The Port of Los Angeles expects the volume of container traffic in the first week of May to be at least 35% lower than in the same period last year. According to the World Trade Organization, the volume of trade between the US and China could fall by 80% this year.
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The US is facing a shortage of goods
The heads of the largest US retail chains, including Home Depot, Target, and Walmart, visited the White House to warn of future problems with shortages. Publicly, they assure consumers that they will do everything possible to maintain affordable prices, but in reality, the situation is much more tense, the publication writes. Goldman Sachs analysts predict a 6-8% rise in consumer goods prices by the end of 2025.
Large companies with sufficient financial reserves and logistics capabilities are trying to soften the blow by purchasing additional stocks of goods (for about 90 days) and looking for new sources of supply in other countries. However, there are limitations on production capacity and time to quickly produce additional goods and deliver them to the United States before import prices rise, Bloomberg writes.
The problem is not only in finished goods. China produces almost a third of the world’s plastic and is the largest supplier of paper packaging. This means that important components of many everyday goods have suddenly risen in price, and demand for these components from countries with less export capacity has increased dramatically. This situation can create short-term shortages just as effectively as shortages of the goods themselves.
The Trump administration does not care
Small businesses that do not have sufficient working capital to overcome the crisis will suffer the most. They are already feeling the effects: canceling orders from Chinese suppliers and facing shortages of goods. Despite Trump’s strong support among small business owners, the president in an interview with NBC called these problems the concerns of only “a few small businesses” and offered no help.
The impact on the economy could be significant, as Christmas shopping is the backbone of the consumer economy, which accounts for two-thirds of US GDP and provides millions of jobs. In addition, there are intangible losses: the ability to buy gifts or organize holiday gatherings significantly affects people’s self-perception as parents, family members, professionals, and partners.
The administration’s statements on import tariffs are contradictory. In an interview with Fox News, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he was not worried about empty store shelves, citing “great retailers” and suggesting that they had pre-ordered. The next day, however, Trump was less confident about a normal Christmas season, admitting that
“maybe kids will have two dolls instead of thirty, and maybe those two dolls will cost a few dollars more.”
This prediction has already come true: Mattel Inc. the maker of Barbie dolls, told investors that it would have to raise prices in the US due to tariffs.
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