February’s imbalances: revenue figures are encouraging, slowing economic growth is disappointing
20 March 2025 10:56
The State Tax Service of Ukraine has published financial results for February 2025, recording business activation and steady revenue growth after the traditional winter decline. This was reported by the State Tax Service, according to
Average daily revenue in February increased by 10% compared to January – from UAH 12.7 billion to UAH 14 billion. The total number of receipts for the two months amounted to 1.533 billion, which indicates an increase in consumer activity.
Areas of economic recovery
According to the State Tax Service, one of the most dynamic segments was the fuel market, which saw a steady increase in sales. In February, 19.69 million liters of fuel were sold, which is 9.3% more than in January (18.01 million liters). The total value of fuel sold in the first two months of 2025 exceeded UAH 56.9 billion.
The alcohol and tobacco segments show steady growth. Sales of alcoholic beverages increased by 1.9% in February, reaching UAH 393.5 million (compared to UAH 386.1 million in January).
Sales of tobacco products increased by 2.7%, rising from UAH 334.8 million in January to UAH 343.7 million in February. The total revenue from sales of tobacco products and e-cigarette liquids has already exceeded UAH 20 billion.
The consumer electronics market also demonstrated strong financial results. The total revenue from the sale of household appliances for two months of 2025 amounted to UAH 31.12 billion.
The gambling business also shows significant financial turnover. The total revenue from the gambling business exceeded UAH 8.49 billion. In January, the amount was UAH 4.39 billion, and in February – UAH 4.09 billion.
Economic growth is still ahead of the forecast for Q1
The recovery in domestic (retail) trade was one of the drivers of GDP growth in February 2025. Consumer sentiment also continued to improve in February, a trend that has been observed for the fourth month in a row.
According to the Ministry of Economy, in February 2025, Ukraine’s GDP grew by 0.7%, while in January growth was estimated at 1.5%. The ministry explained the slightly lower figures for the beginning of the year as a reflection of the uneven growth trends of the past year. Hostile attacks on infrastructure facilities also had an impact on the economic result in February.
According to Oleksiy Sobolev, First Deputy Minister of Economy of Ukraine, “the slowdown in economic growth in February was due to rocket attacks on gas production facilities and a temporary decrease in exporters’ activity. At the same time, high budgetary funding for the restoration of damaged critical infrastructure, housing construction under the eRestoration and eHouse programs, as well as purchases of domestic defense products offset these negative factors.”
There is also a more critical view of the economic results of February
Russian shelling of energy infrastructure and industrial facilities led to a significant slowdown in Ukraine’s economic growth in February. This is emphasized by experts of the Institute for Economic Studies.
Given the new data and slightly improved methodology, they revised their estimate of real GDP growth in January from 2% to 1.3%. Real GDP growth in February, according to their estimates, slowed to 0.5%.
The IER Monthly Economic Monitor also provides the following data for February:
– gas imports increased 12 times compared to January – to 512 million m3;
– Ukraine increased electricity imports by almost 30% to 244 thousand MWh;
– cargo turnover of the ports of Greater Odesa amounted to 8 million tons, which is 21% more than in January. Rail transportation was down 12% yoy;
– exports of goods in February fell by 10% y-o-y, while imports increased by 15%;
– in February, monthly inflation was below 1% y-o-y for the first time in six months, which gives rise to hopes for some easing of inflationary pressures.
