The Russian economy has entered stagnation: what does it mean?
2 January 06:51
The economy of the Russian Federation has actually stopped growing and is entering a phase of stagnation. This was reported by the Center for Countering Disinformation of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, citing official Russian statistics and estimates of even analysts loyal to the Kremlin, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports
According to the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, in November 2025, Russia’s gross domestic product grew by only 0.1% year-on-year. This is the worst figure since the beginning of 2023 and a de facto signal of a halt in economic growth.
Industry has gone into the red
The Center for Public Policy points out that for the first time in the last nine months, industrial production in Russia has decreased by 0.7%.
“Obviously, this is not about seasonal fluctuations. It was the industry that was the basis of the so-called “military growth” that formally supported economic indicators in 2023-2024,” the Center for Countering Disinformation notes.
According to experts, the decline in industry indicates the exhaustion of the resources of the model that supported the Russian economy during the full-scale war.
The risk of recession is growing sharply
The Center for Public Policy emphasizes that even analysts loyal to the Kremlin recognize the rapid increase in the risk of recession as early as 2026. It’s not just a matter of stopping growth, but a real economic downturn.
Analysts state that the model based on three key factors has actually exhausted itself:
- large-scale budgetary pumping of the economy;
- import substitution under sanctions;
- forced lending to businesses and the public sector.
A direct consequence of the war
The Center for Countering Disinformation emphasizes that the current stagnation is a direct consequence of the war and the Kremlin’s management decisions.
“The Russian authorities deliberately continue their aggression even when the economic base for this is no longer sufficient. The Russian economy is coming to a standstill,” the Center emphasizes.
The agency adds that the longer the Russian leadership ignores economic reality, the more painful the consequences for the country will be.
Signals of crisis are growing
Earlier, the analytical center CMAKP, which is close to the Russian authorities, also reported a rapid increase in the likelihood of recession. According to its estimates, the first alarming signals appeared as early as June 2025, and they are only getting stronger with each passing month.
Thus, even internal Russian sources are increasingly recognizing that Russia’s war-oriented economic model is losing its ability to sustain growth and is entering a phase of systemic crisis.
