Expert: Drone attacks and budget deficit exacerbate fuel crisis in Russia
30 September 14:24
The fuel crisis in Russia is getting worse, affecting several regions from Crimea to the Far East. According to energy expert Volodymyr Omelchenko, the reasons for the shortage are complex: traditional seasonal factors, people returning from vacations, and the active phase of agricultural work have been combined with the consequences of Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refining infrastructure.
He spoke about this in a commentary to "Komersant Ukrainian".
“September, early October, they always have a certain crisis due to the fact that they have agricultural work, people are returning from vacation, and so on. But there is also the fact that the Ukrainian drone strikes have exacerbated this crisis,” he said.
According to the expert, the situation is particularly difficult in Crimea, where due to logistical problems and limited supply channels, fuel is supplied only through the Kerch crossing or the port of Feodosia. In addition, large international companies avoid working on the peninsula because of sanctions, and the market is controlled by small discounters.
“In my opinion, it is impossible to estimate the extent of the destruction today, as all information is closed in Russia. Yes, indeed, the situation is worse in Crimea than in other regions, because the logistics of fuel delivery is worse there. You have to deliver it only through the Kerch ferry or through the port of Feodosia. In addition, premium segments and majors do not operate there because they are afraid of sanctions, and mostly discounters and small companies operate there,” he explained.
Omelchenko emphasized that an additional factor driving the crisis is the strict state regulation of prices in Russia, which, in the context of a record budget deficit, creates new imbalances.
“How long will this go on… This is a crisis not only in Crimea, but it is also going on in Sakhalin, the Far East, Buryatia, and the Chita region. It’s hard to say how long it will last. I think we need to wait a couple more weeks, when this season of peak consumption of petroleum products is over. Then it will be possible to say something. I think that, in addition to drone attacks, the state regulation of prices in Russia plays a big role here. And when there is state regulation, it always stimulates a crisis. We know this very well. And in Russia, there is nothing to cover the difference between the market price and the price that is sold, because the budget deficit is five times higher than planned,” the expert believes.
In his opinion, if the Ukrainian drone strikes continue, serious problems with fuel may arise in the winter not only in Crimea and the occupied territories, but also in the regions bordering Ukraine.
“It is very difficult to estimate. I think it is possible. If the attacks continue, there may be serious problems in Crimea, especially in the occupied territories of Ukraine. And also in the regions that are in the Belgorod and Bryansk regions that border Ukraine. This is very likely to happen. As for Moscow and the central regions, I can’t say yet, I can’t predict, because I don’t have full information,” Omelchenko summarized.
As a reminder, the fuel crisis in Crimea continues to escalate: Sergey Aksyonov’s promises to solve the problem of the disappearance of A95 gasoline do not work.