Gas will not be enough: Ukraine risks not getting through the winter – expert
20 June 14:38
Gas reserves in Ukrainian storage facilities are below the annual average. According to analysts, the storage facilities are only 23% full. At the same time, as energy expert Gennadiy Ryabtsev explains, the percentage of occupancy itself is not the main benchmark. Much more important are the rate of injection, production volume, import opportunities, and financing of purchases. In a commentary to "Komersant Ukrainian", he explained how much gas Ukraine actually needs, what problems exist, whether the fuel will last until the heating season, and why it is necessary to act now.
Although the 23% storage capacity figure looks alarming, it is not a completely correct assessment of Ukraine’s needs, he said. According to him, it is necessary to take into account the real consumption volumes, not the maximum technical capacities of the storage facilities.
“There is no need to rely on the storage capacity. Because in fact, Ukraine does not need 30 billion cubic meters of gas. Ukraine needs 13 billion cubic meters of gas in storage facilities, including long-term storage or buffer gas,” he said.
According to him, the key problem is not in absolute numbers, but in dynamics: the current level of injection is lower than in previous years on the same date. This is also recognized at the government level, Ryabtsev said.
“Compared to the same period last year, the storage facilities are less than a quarter full. That is, in June last year, there was a quarter more gas in the storage facilities than now,” he adds.
The expert recalled that a week ago, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on partners to pump more gas into Ukrainian storage facilities. After the President’s statement and the change in the management of Naftogaz, the pumping rate increased. However, this may not be enough if there is no additional funding, the expert believes.
“Now we have about 45 million cubic meters of gas injected per day. But these 45 million cubic meters of gas per day are still not enough to reach the level of 13 billion cubic meters of gas, plus or minus 1 billion, by November 1 this year. We lack about 2 billion cubic meters of gas, or rather, we lack the funds to purchase these 2 billion,” he adds.
Mr. Ryabtsev also said that Ukraine mainly uses its own gas, in the amount of 40-45 million cubic meters per day. Since consumption is reduced in the off-season, part of the resource is pumped into underground storage facilities. However, this is not enough, he said.
“We need to pump at least 4.5 billion cubic meters of gas during the off-season, from April 15 to October 15. In addition to what is produced. Out of these 4.5 billion cubic meters of gas, it is still clear where to get 2.5 billion cubic meters. Where can we get another 2 billion cubic meters of gas? There is no direct answer,” he states.
A possible option is to replace a certain percentage of gas with additional fuels. However, this does not completely solve the problem, Ryabtsev says.
“In addition to making sure that we have such reserves of additional fuel, we still need to find these 2 billion cubic meters of gas somewhere,” he summarized.
The expert advises not to delay with contracts: in the second half of the summer, gas demand is growing across Europe, which may lead to higher prices.
