Inflation in Ukraine accelerated in March: the NBU has provided an explanation
11 April 19:14
Inflation in Ukraine accelerated to 7.9% year-over-year in March 2026, while prices rose by 1.7% month-over-month. Actual figures for both headline and core inflation exceeded the regulator’s forecast, which was published in the January inflation report.
This is reported by "Komersant Ukrainian" citing the NBU.
The main factor behind the deviation was a sharp rise in fuel prices amid the war in the Middle East and rising global oil prices, which also affected the cost of transportation services.
The annual rate of growth in fuel prices accelerated to 23.4%, reflecting higher prices for petroleum products and gas.
At the same time, the growth of administratively regulated prices slowed to 8.6% year-over-year, although this figure remained slightly higher than expected. The main contributor to the deviation was the increase in fares for various modes of transport due to rising fuel prices.
The growth in prices for raw food products also slowed—to 8.4% year-on-year. The decline in prices for certain items, particularly vegetables used in borscht, is attributed to active clearance sales of inventory amid warm weather. The rate of increase in meat prices slowed due to an increase in import supply, while buckwheat prices rose faster due to a poor harvest.
Core inflation rose to 7.1% year-on-year. In particular, the rise in prices for processed food accelerated to 10% due to rising prices for raw materials and energy. Sunflower oil became more expensive due to a shortage of raw materials and high global prices, while fish and seafood prices rose due to higher import costs.
Inflation in the services sector accelerated to 12.8%. This was driven by higher mobile communication rates, as well as rising business electricity costs, which affected prices in the food service, entertainment, and household services segments. Rising fuel prices also led to higher costs for transportation services, including taxis and freight transport.
At the same time, prices for non-food goods fell by 0.5% year-over-year.
The National Bank notes that inflation remains moderate overall, but exceeds the previous forecast trajectory due to increased pressure from business costs. The regulator will publish its updated macroeconomic forecast at the end of April, with detailed assessments to follow in the May inflation report.
