ISW: Russians stop Avdiivka offensive and prepare to attack Toretsk
1 May 2024 13:55
on 30 April, for the first time in several days, Russian troops did not carry out any confirmed offensives in the Avdiivka area. This is stated in the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
The reports of the General Staff of Ukraine for 30 April state that Ukrainian troops repelled 47 Russian attacks in the Avdiivka sector and 57 attacks in the Bakhmut sector over the day. One day’s worth of reports is not enough to establish a pattern, but ISW suggests that Russian forces are slowing down the pace of attacks around Avdiivka while resuming offensive efforts around Chasovyi Yar.
Russian military bloggers claimed that Russian forces had advanced 2.7 kilometres wide and 1.52 kilometres deep north of Avdiivka (Novokalynove) and in an area up to 1.75 kilometres wide and 1.15 kilometres deep northwest of Ocheretyne towards Novooleksandrivka. However, there is currently no visual evidence to support these claims.
At the same time, ISW confirms that Russian troops operating near Ocheretyne are 13 kilometres from the T-0504 Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka road.
“Russian forces may decide to advance from their position north of Avdiivka towards Toretsk to complement Russian offensive operations near Chasovyi Yar, which would likely require Russian forces to conduct a tactical pause to concentrate forces for such an offensive,” the ISW report said,
– the ISW report says.
Russian forces could decide to move north from their tactical penetration near Ocheretyne along the H-20 (Donetsk-Kostiantynivka) to pressure Ukrainian forces defending in the Toretsk area and possibly threaten a move into Chasiv Yar.
Chasiv Yar, in turn, is an operationally significant object, as it could become a springboard for launching an offensive against Druzhkivka and Kostiantynivka, which form a belt of fortresses in four major cities in Donetsk Oblast.
“However, Russian forces will likely need a longer pause to reinforce existing units and redeploy additional forces to the Ocheretyne area if they decide to try to push north towards Toretsk. [Military observer] Mashovets said that Russia’s Central Military Group (currently responsible for the Avdiivka area) has established a tactical reserve of three small infantry regiments in the Avdiivka area, and ISW previously assessed that Russian forces are likely building up operational and strategic level reserves to support expected spring/summer offensive efforts.”
– iSW reported.
