Bread, vegetables, milk: where to expect price increases and where to expect seasonal price reductions
13 February 14:42
In early February, bread producers plan to raise prices by about 5%. The main reason is the rise in electricity prices for businesses. In addition, the minimum wage increase and fuel costs for generators have also affected prices. This was announced by Oleksandr Taranenko, first vice president of the All-Ukrainian Bakers Association.
He noted that since the beginning of January, production costs have increased by 6-7%. In particular, the increase in electricity tariffs by almost 30% added another 2-3% to costs.
Taranenko explained that in the event of power outages, enterprises are forced to operate on generators, which significantly increases costs. For an average bread factory, one hour of generator operation requires about 60-70 liters of fuel, and for larger production facilities, twice as much. In addition, in winter, Arctic diesel has to be used, which costs about 8 hryvnia per liter more than regular diesel.
The minimum wage also increased on January 1, which further impacted business costs. As a result, they have increased by 6–7% since the beginning of the year, so prices are expected to rise by approximately 5% in early February.
According to Taranenko, five percent is approximately one hryvnia per loaf of bread. One loaf is enough for a person for several days, so for the consumer this means an additional few hryvnias per month.
At the same time, he acknowledged that even such a price increase could be significant for people with low incomes. However, this is a necessary step that will allow companies to continue supplying stores with bread.
Currently, the average Ukrainian consumes about 150–200 grams of bread per day, or approximately 5 kilograms per month. In monetary terms, this amounts to about 200–210 hryvnia per month.
Bread prices: what the statistics show
In an exclusive comment for "Komersant Ukrainian", economist Oleg Pendzin commented on statements by representatives of the bakers’ association regarding a possible increase in bread prices and assessed the situation on the market for vegetables, dairy products, and other socially significant goods.
According to the expert, such statements about a sharp rise in bread prices are not new.
“As far as I can remember, representatives of the bakers’ association have predicted price increases more than once. If we talk about 2025, at least three times. The last time was in late September – early October, when they talked about a 20% increase over a decade,” Pendzin said.
However, official statistics show a much more moderate trend.
According to the State Statistics Service, in 2025 (December to December), bread rose in price by 13.5% — an average of about 1–1.5% per month.
“Even in 2022, which was an extremely difficult year, bread rose in price by 21% over the year — less than 2% per month,” the economist emphasized.
Pendzin emphasizes that bread is a basic socially significant product, so its price is closely monitored by the state. Monitoring is carried out by the Ministry of Economy and the State Food and Consumer Service. This primarily concerns mass-produced types of bread — wheat, rye, loaves, and other socially significant products.
“There is a law on pricing that gives the state broad powers in the event of a sharp rise in prices for socially significant products. This includes declaring price changes, limiting trade margins, and conducting inspections,” he explained.
According to the expert, producers are well aware of these risks.
“Anyone who wants to mess with the state can try. But it will end very badly — with fines that will offset any increase,” Pendzin warned.
He also suggested that in the event of drastic measures, the Antimonopoly Committee and regulatory authorities would be the first to react. The economist also urged people not to panic.
“I can say with certainty that the maximum increase in prices for common types of bread over the course of a month will not exceed 2%. Anything else is just speculation,” he emphasized.
According to him, increases in bread prices always cause a wave of social discontent, and in the current conditions, the state “will definitely not let the situation get out of hand.”
What will happen to vegetable prices
As for the so-called “borscht set,” the situation is currently favorable for consumers.
“Today, prices for potatoes, beets, cabbage, and onions are 1.5–2.5 times lower than a year ago. The reason is simple — a good harvest,” Pendzin noted.
He cited potatoes as an example: a year ago, they cost about 32 UAH/kg, but now they cost about 15 UAH/kg.
At the same time, the expert predicts a seasonal increase in prices in the spring.
“We will gradually use up our stocks, and in March–April, imports will traditionally appear — new potatoes from Egypt and Israel, early vegetables. This is a normal seasonal factor,” he explained.
Despite this, on an annual basis, the vegetable group is currently cheaper than last year.
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Dairy products: competition with imports
The economist drew particular attention to the situation in the dairy industry, which, according to him, is in a more difficult position than the baking industry.
“Ukrainian cheese is on the shelf next to Polish cheese, which is often 20% cheaper. And consumers choose what is more affordable,” he said.
At the same time, according to Pendzin, dairy producers are not making loud statements about sharp price increases, despite significant costs for electricity, storage, and logistics. Moreover, the industry has appealed to the Ministry of Economy with a proposal to expand the “Ukrainian Cashback” program — to increase reimbursement to 15-20% for goods that compete with imports. According to the economist, the key factor in restraining prices is the purchasing power of the population.
“The price is a mutual agreement between the seller and the buyer. Tell me, did our real incomes increase significantly in January? No. So why should we pay more?” he noted.
The expert emphasizes that consumers’ wallets are not bottomless. If something becomes more expensive, people simply buy less or refuse to buy certain goods.
In general, economists expect a moderate price increase of 1.5-2% per month for most items, with possible fluctuations in certain categories.
“There is no need to rock the boat. The situation is more or less clear: there will be a slight increase in prices within the average cost of the consumer basket. No more,” Oleg Pendzin concluded.
In other words, the announced increase in bread prices in early February appears to be a reaction by producers to rising costs, primarily due to higher electricity and fuel prices and an increase in the minimum wage. In terms of the consumer, this translates to approximately one hryvnia per loaf, which on average will mean a few extra hryvnias in expenses per month.
At the same time, experts and the government are calling for the situation not to be dramatized. Statistics from previous years show moderate growth in prices for social grades of bread, and state control and limited purchasing power of the population remain restraining factors for sharp jumps. Against the backdrop of cheaper vegetables than last year and fierce competition in the dairy market, the overall picture of the food market looks relatively stable, with a projected moderate increase of 1.5-2% per month for most items.
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